Locks
NBA – Spurs/Mavs Over 226 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on NBA TV
I’m going to make this one pretty simple. Before the All-Star break, the Dallas Mavericks had gone over this number seven straight games, with the exception of their last game against a boring Oklahoma City Thunder team. The San Antonio Spurs are also a team that often plays to the beat of their opponent, and 226 really isn’t a high number for any game that Luka Doncíc and the Mavs are a part of.
Roll with the over here as we welcome the NBA back from a weekend of weirdness.
NCAA Basketball – Butler vs. Xavier -6.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on FS1
Xavier has been extremely frustrating this season. They have tons of talent, and the ability to shoot the lights out. But they’ve had multiple COVID pauses and more than their share of head-scratching losses.
It seems like the only thing they’ve done consistently is beat Butler by double digits. The Musketeers are just 3-5 both straight up and ATS in their last eight games, with two of those coming against this Butler team. The Bulldogs have shown the ability to sneak up on some unsuspecting Big East victims this season, but it’s tough for a young team like this to play in MSG, especially one that shoots as poorly as Butler does.
Xavier desperately needs this game — and probably more — to stay on the committee’s radar. I think they come in prepared and get another comfortable win against a team they know how to beat.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Rice/Marshall Over 157 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game will be all about pace and a barrage of three-point attempts.
Rice is not afraid of letting it fly from deep, attempting the 10th most threes in the country. Not to be outdone, Marshall is close behind with the 30th most attempts nationally. The key here is how bad these teams will be at stopping the other from beyond the arc. Rice is 303rd in 3-point field goal defense and Marshall is 290th.
With both teams shooting it at relatively high percentages, we should see a lot of makes from downtown. Add in that the Owls and Herd play at the 55th and 35th fastest tempos respectively, and this should be quite the shootout. Whether Marshall continues its habit of running up the score on bad defenses or this is a tight conference tournament clash, I think any game script will result in enough points to clear this total.
NCAA Basketball – Iowa State +11.5 vs. Oklahoma (-110): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
I know what you’re thinking: This is a degenerate homer play on my Cyclones because they’re on ESPN for the final game of the season.
Parts of that are accurate, but I’ve also been watching this line closely. It opened with Oklahoma as a 12-point favorite, and public bettors have been laying it with the Sooners as a ranked favorite against the winless bottom seed. Despite a nearly 3:1 ticket disparity on Oklahoma, the number has been remarkably static and now moved half a point towards ISU, showing that pros are loving the Clones here.
It makes sense. The Sooners have closed the season with four straight losses, and also struggled to put away ISU in their two matchups – wins by just 7 and 10 points. I’m tailing the sharp money in this spot and expect to get a good effort out of the Clones in their last hurrah of this awful season.
Tiny Nick is 191-118 ATS (+65.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
