Locks
NCAA Basketball – Kansas St. vs. Baylor -19.5 (-110): 1:30 PM on ESPN
Conference tournament games have a mystique about them: It’s a fresh start for bad teams, so they’ll keep it close against the powerhouses.
Well, what about when the teams involved had margins of 31 and 48 points in their regular-season matchups? This line is doing its best to imply a closer result this time around, but I don’t see it. Kansas State has played better over the last five games, going 4-1 straight up and ATS. But the loss came against the only truly good team they faced — a 22-point beatdown by West Virginia.
The Wildcats got their surprise Big 12 tournament win yesterday against TCU and are in for a letdown spot against this Baylor squad. Despite the large spread here, this number is actually on its way up. I see the Bears treating this as their opportunity to run someone out before settling in for the tough part of the Big 12 tournament.
NBA – Wolves/Pelicans Over 239 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Fox Sports North
I’m aware this number is high and honestly, it’s higher than I wanted it to be. But the New Orleans Pelicans are currently playing at a pace we’ve rarely seen in the NBA. They’ve been living in the 120s over the last month while also having a defense that hasn’t exactly been stout.
When you match that against an incompetent Minnesota Timberwolves defense, it screams over. I expect another track meet tonight between these two teams as long as Zion Williamson and Co. are playing. They should be after having a few days off for the All-Star break.
This Minnesota defense should continue to struggle in a big way under new head coach Chris Finch. It’s just a matter of if they can score enough themselves to get this one over.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo -8.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+
What I love about this Buffalo team is they’re not even a little bit shy about blowing teams out. And catching them in the right matchup like this one is the perfect time to profit from it.
The average margin in their conference victories is 19 points, and only one of those was by single digits. That includes two wins over this Miami (Ohio) team by 28 and 24 points. In both of those games, Buffalo shot over 50% from the field and was able to play at their preferred style, which is the 9th fastest pace in the country.
The 276th-paced Redhawks simply can’t keep up. They shoot at too low of a percentage (185th nationally) and can’t get second-chance points against the best rebounding team in the country. This is simply not a good matchup for Miami (Ohio), and this line is too short. I’m laying the points with Buffalo and expecting another double-digit victory.
Tiny Nick is 191-120 ATS (+63.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
