Locks
NCAA Basketball – Nevada +8.5 vs. San Diego St. (-110): 8:30 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
I’m a big fan of this Nevada team, particularly Grant Sherfield, and think they’re extremely undervalued in the market and under the radar overall.
The only times they’ve really struggled this season is on the road at elevation, going 0-4 at Utah St. and Wyoming. The other road doubleheader where they were swept was at San Diego St. But the Wolfpack lost those games by five and two points, respectively, so catching this many points on a neutral floor just isn’t right.
After seeing SDSU struggle with Wyoming yesterday, I’m skeptical of their motivation here. Especially compared to Nevada, who probably needs the MWC title for a tournament berth and took down a desperate Boise team last night. I see this one coming right down to the wire, and catching almost three full possessions worth of points is a good spot for a semifinal game like this.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – North Carolina/Florida St. Over 150 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
All year long the knock on North Carolina has been their lack of shooting ability, particularly from beyond the arc. But look who discovered their offense at just the right time.
The Heels have been lighting it up in March, shooting nearly 50% from the field in their last three games and nearly 40% from deep. Those big increases over their season averages will be important against FSU, who has an elite offense in terms of shooting percentage and efficiency.
Looking back on their two regular-season meetings, both teams shot extremely well in the first and it reached 158 points. In the second matchup, both teams shot far below their season averages and it still got to 148 points. This being a high-stakes game between two teams figuring it out offensively, I see plenty of points, so take the over.
Tiny Nick is 193-121 ATS (+64.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
