Locks
NBA – Suns +1.5 @ Lakers (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
This one is a little surprising I know, especially with LeBron James expected to play tonight for the Los Angeles Lakers. This really isn’t about the Lakers though, it’s about how good the Phoenix Suns are.
The Suns are the hottest team in the NBA right now with Devin Booker and Chris Paul showing the world they are a top duo in the NBA. Anthony Davis is a huge piece of Los Angeles’ success, and I think that’s being slightly undervalued here in his absence. This game will probably be close, but I expect this mix of veterans and young stars to pull away late from a short-handed Laker team.
Monitor the injury report as always in the NBA, but as long as everyone is a go for Phoenix, I like them to cover and probably win.
NCAA Basketball – Indiana @ Michigan State -3 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Big Ten Network
Most projections have the Big Ten sending either nine or ten teams to the NCAA tournament, so a game between the two teams tied for 9th in the conference takes on significantly more weight.
This line is too short though. Despite Michigan State’s disappointing loss at Maryland on Saturday, the Spartans are on a much better trajectory. They already won at Indiana just ten days ago, sparking the resurgence for their season. That game had the opposite effect for the Hoosiers, though, as they’ve lost and failed to cover in the two games since.
Indiana struggles against athletic wings like Aaron Henry and Josh Langford who were dominant in that first matchup and should be again here. The market might not fully trust this Spartans team, but I trust Tom Izzo in March, especially in a bounceback spot off a bad loss, so take the short home favorite here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Fresno State @ Boise State -13.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
Squarely on the bubble after two close losses in San Diego over the weekend, Boise State has this makeup game as their last before the Mountain West tournament. I see the Broncos in need of a statement game and style points, so this Fresno State team might be an ideal victim.
Boise already handled them by 22 back in January, and that’s been indicative of the Bulldogs against top MWC teams. Fresno is 0-8 straight up and ATS against the top 5 teams in the conference standings, and none of those losses have been by less than this spread. The stakes are obviously much higher for Boise here, and I see a focused and motivated team getting a convincing win, so lay the points.
NCAA Basketball – Baylor/West Virginia Over 149 (-110): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN
This should be an excellent game no matter what, and also a chance for Baylor’s offense to finally wake up from the COVID pause — they have not looked like their typical selves in the last two games. That’s especially true from a shooting perspective, the best 3-point shooting team in the country is only connecting on 27% of shots from deep since coming back.
I see a get-right spot here against a West Virginia team allowing opponents to shoot 36.8% from long range in their last three games. I’ve also recently mentioned the change in personality for the Mountaineers, who adopted a faster pace and outside shooting style since the departure of Oscar Tshiebwe. The Mountaineers are 7-2 over this total against tournament-caliber teams without Tshiebwe, and I expect another here in an incredibly high-stakes game for both teams.
Tiny Nick is 179-112 ATS (+60.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
