Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/20

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NCAA Basketball – Iona/Alabama Over 147: 3:00 PM CT on TBS

This is another case of a truncated season with COVID pauses causing the statistics to lie to you.

On paper, Iona on like a slow-paced and low-scoring team, they’re 153rd in tempo and 30th in defensive efficiency. But you have to account for the glacial pace of MAAC teams trying to negate what Rick Pitino loves to do, which is play fast. Iona only played 17 games all season – most against that type of slow team – but in looking at their six games against teams with strong offenses and a willingness to run, we see every single one going over this particular total.

It’s well known that Alabama has a fast-paced offense and shoots a lot of 3-pointers, and their games against other running teams this season have flown over the total. I also see this as a closer game than most anticipate as Pitino goes deep into his bag of coaching tricks and gets his team to play hard for 40 minutes.

With these similar styles meeting for a hard-fought game, I see this as a pretty low total and want the over.

NCAA Basketball – Ohio +7.5 vs. Virginia (-110): 6:15 PM CT on TRUTV

I’m not a college basketball player, but I’m pretty sure not being able to practice all week until this morning would make stepping into this game pretty difficult.

That’s what the fresh-out-of-quarantine Cavaliers are up against here, and this Ohio team is a tough matchup no matter what. The Bobcats bring a style designed to defeat the Virginia pack-line defense: They share the ball really well as the 6th best assists team in the country and are 11th in two-point field goal percentage.

Virginia’s slow and deliberate style naturally creates the conditions for a tournament environment upset. Without a go-to scorer who can get a bucket when needed, the Cavs are asking to get in trouble against a fast and efficient team like Ohio. Could Virginia be making an unexpected early exit from the tournament? That could never happen, could it?

NCAA Basketball – Norfolk St./Gonzaga Over 154  (-110): 8:20 PM CT on TBS

We know Gonzaga is going to run away with this one, and I get a distinct feeling we’ll see them tease the century mark here.

Norfolk has strong overall defensive metrics that have been built up against the lightweights of the MEAC conference, but they have played several high-scoring games against fast-paced teams like Coppin, Morgan, and Delaware State and are a top-70 team in overall pace.

The Spartans now get to face the highest-powered offense in the country, a Gonzaga team that’s 7th in overall pace, averages 92.1 PPG and scored 97.5 per game against their non-conference cupcake slate. It’s easy for me to see the Zags reach or surpass those scoring averages here, and it doesn’t take much to get over this number if they do. I can’t lay 33 points with Gonzaga or take it with Norfolk, but marry that spread with the Gonzaga scoring average and you get a game in the 160-plus range so take the over.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball – LSU -1.5 Vs St. Bonaventure (-110): 12:45 PM CT on TNT

This really comes down to being a gut pick. LSU finished the season strong with consecutive wins against strong SEC competition, with the exception of their final game being a one-point loss to powerhouse Alabama team.

St. Bonaventure cruised against lesser competition in the Atlantic 10 and probably haven’t seen LSU type speed yet this year. If the Bonnies can hit their threes and slow this game down they have a good chance, but this spread is too small for me not to take Javonte Smart and the LSU Tigers to win this one.

Tiny Nick is 198-124 ATS (+66.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Kirby Lee (USA TODAY Sports)

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