Locks
NCAA Basketball – Loyola-Chicago vs. Illinois -7 (-110): 11:10 AM CT on CBS
In this battle of Illinois, it really looks to me like there’s too much sentimentality going Loyola’s way. I see them as a trendy dog here that has attracted lots of attention from the open of +9, but it’s now a number in perfect territory to buy low on a national title contender.
No question the Ramblers will be motivated against an in-state team that’s getting so much title buzz, but they’re just outmatched and this line is too short. Let’s remember that Loyola has tangled with the Big Ten once before this season, a 14-point loss to Wisconsin that’s only looked worse as the season progressed.
While Loyola shoots a very impressive 50.4%, good for 5th in the country, they’ll be bothered by the size, length, and speed of the Illini. Don’t get stuck in 2018, this will be a double-digit win for Illinois.
NCAA Basketball – Wisconsin vs. Baylor -6 (-110): 1:40 PM CT on CBS
This feels like a serious overreaction to one game’s result: Wisconsin’s dismantling of an inconsistent UNC squad on Friday. Isn’t this the same Wisconsin team that hasn’t beaten any teams better than them all season? Isn’t this still Baylor, one of the best two or three teams in the country?
Yes to both, and that makes this line far too short.
This is a matchup of the 16th best shooting team against the 257th, and the best three-point shooting squad against the team that’s 127th in defending from deep. Given those statistical gulfs and the importance they have in how Baylor wants to play, this line would make more sense in the double-digit range.
The Badgers have played three games against two other 1-seeds, losing by 8, 15, and 23 points, so I’m jumping on Baylor in a spot where I see them pretty undervalued.
NCAA Basketball – Arkansas +1.5 vs. Texas Tech (-110): 5:10 PM CT on TNT
This is mostly a gut instinct play, but I think there’s some overreaction to one game playing into the line here as well. Tech looked very good against an overmatched Utah State team, but they essentially beat a lesser version of themselves as the Aggies are extremely slow-paced and struggle to score.
That’s not the case against this Arkansas team that plays at the 11th fastest pace and is 34th in offensive efficiency. The Razorbacks’ backcourt is what I love about them, and their athleticism and ability to defend will be able to lock down a Red Raiders team that relies solely on Mac McClung when they need a bucket.
Both teams are top-30 in adjusted defensive efficiency so this will be hard-fought and likely close, but after Arkansas got their wakeup call against Colgate I like them to move on and will take the points as insurance.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Oral Roberts +8 vs. Florida (-110): 6:45 PM CT on TRUTV
So many jokes with Oral Roberts and so little time, I’m hoping they make it to the Sweet Sixteen so we can keep them rolling. In all seriousness though, the Golden Eagles are no joke. They belong here.
They prepared themselves for this early in the season with their first five D1 games being against teams that made the tournament. And beating Ohio State is much tougher than beating Florida — the Gators hadn’t beaten a tournament team since January before their overtime win against Virginia Tech on Friday.
Florida will have to rely on its strong 3-point field goal defense to disrupt the team that takes the most and makes the 10th most from deep, but even that statistic is misleading as none of Florida’s SEC opponents are even top-100 in three-point shooting. Oral Roberts knows how to hang around and their proficiency from deep can bring them back from most deficits, so I’m taking the points here.
Tiny Nick is 200-126 ATS (+66 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
