Locks
NCAA Basketball – Alabama -6.5 vs. UCLA (-110): 6:15 PM on TBS
This one really comes down to being a gut pick for me, mostly because I’m not a believer in this Bruins team.
Alabama can score with anyone in the country and although they are a football school, this team is changing that fast. Bama just put up 96 against a Maryland team with a pretty good defense, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again today.
I could be naive about this UCLA squad that I haven’t trusted all year, especially after seeing the PAC 12 have so much success so far in this tournament, but 6.5 is just too small of a spread against John Petty Jr., Jaden Shackelford, and this Crimson Ride team.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Creighton/Gonzaga Over 158 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on CBS
Since it’s Gonzaga, not much really needs to be said about this game.
The Bulldogs are 1st in scoring, Creighton is 52nd. Gonzaga is 1st in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Bluejays are 24th. Gonzaga is 1st in effective field goal percentage, Creighton is 14th. The list goes on of things this Gonzaga squad is the best at, and I don’t think Creighton has any choice but to use their potent offense to try and keep up.
They have the athletes to get out and run, plus the shooters and green light from deep to keep up for at least a while. An interesting thing to watch with Gonzaga is how willing they are to allow baskets inside just so they can start the fast break off a made bucket. Denzel Mahoney, Damien Jefferson, and Christian Bishop are excellent finishers who will take advantage of that tendency to the benefit of us over bettors.
All four of yesterday’s games went under, so it’s time for some points in this spotlight game.
NCAA Basketball – Florida State +2.5 vs. Michigan (-110): 4:00 PM CT on CBS
I know, I know, I keep not trusting Michigan or going against them entirely and it’s been costly. Last time, I sort-of promise.
I say last time because I think Florida State wins this game and sends the Wolverines home. The Seminoles have gotten to this point with two fairly comfortable wins despite shooting only 23% from deep, and actually missing everything from long range in their first game. That’s bound to turn around for the 15th best 3-point shooting team in the country, and a good opportunity is against a Michigan squad that’s 112th in defending from deep.
I also see big trouble for Michigan’s undersized backcourt against the long and athletic wings of FSU, especially after watching them give so much trouble to another small backcourt in their win over Colorado. With the ‘Noles having five days to fix their shooting woes, I see them getting it together here and moving on. I’ll take the 2.5 points as a little insurance.
Tiny Nick is 207-132 ATS (+66.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
