Locks
NCAA Basketball – USC/Gonzaga Under 153.5 (-110): 6:15 PM CT on TBS
If the statistical matchup is any indication, this should be a great game.
Gonzaga enters this game with the best efficiency on two-point field goals not just in the country, but in the history of college basketball. USC counters with the best defensive efficiency on two-point attempts not just in the country, but in the history of college basketball as well. Just an epic matchup and obviously something has to give.
I think if you combine those facts with the overlooked angle that Gonzaga is 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency, we should be in for a lower scoring game than you’d expect from these potent offenses. The Trojans will guard you tooth-and-nail for 40 minutes, and the Mobley Towers should limit the Zags on post-up scoring and their elite pick-and-roll game.
These teams are also a combined 5-1 under this particular total during the tournament, plus the smart money jumped on the under early. With a Final Four berth on the line, expect plenty of defensive effort.
Bonus Pick: Another crazy stat in this game is USC coach Andy Enfield is 10-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, including his run with Florida Gulf Coast. That makes me hesitant to lay the full game number with Gonzaga, which at 9 points feels a little big anyway. But Gonzaga loves to get up early and then grind teams down, plus they love getting a flurry to enter halftime and have only trailed at half twice this year. For those reasons, I like the Zags -5 in the first half. And if you don’t trust that, just take the Zags ATS.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 208-134 ATS (+65.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
