Locks
NBA – Kings/Blazers Over 236 (-110): 9:00 PM CT
This matchup has over fans pretty excited, especially myself. The Portland Trail Blazers have been at the bottom of the league in defense all year and the Sacramento Kings are coming into town at just the right time for a lot of points, allowing over 120 PPG themselves. With the exception of a lower-scoring game against the Detroit Pistons where Sacramento still scored 110, this Kings team has been clicking on offense in a big way.
Buddy Hield, De’Aaron Fox, and Co. will look to keep rolling on the offensive end while continuing to play fast in a game that should make it into the 240s.
NCAA Basketball – Austin Peay/Eastern Kentucky Over 157: 9:30 PM CT on ESPN+
A good angle to play this time of year is overs in conference tournaments between fairly high seeds. That’s what we have here as the Governors and Colonels both have legitimate chances to make the OVC title game. We also have the benefit of looking at the first two games played between these teams which finished with 155 and 173 points.
This Eastern Kentucky team plays at the 4th fastest pace in the country and takes a lot of shots from deep, a style I expect them to continue in the conference tournament. The line in this game of only two points also implies a tight contest, especially down the stretch where the foul game is taken to the max this time of year.
With both teams being excellent from the free-throw line, I see that boosting this one over the total in what should be a hard-fought game.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Arizona State/Colorado Over 147 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
In this season of fits and starts, one of the bigger disappointments was never seeing this ultra-talented Arizona State team fire on all cylinders.
With more than a couple of potential lottery picks on their roster, the Sun Devils can score with the best of them. And after their second COVID pause, we might now be seeing the true up-tempo and high-scoring team that was expected. ASU has gone over this total in their last six games, with star guard Remy Martin averaging 26.3 PPG in that stretch and the Sun Devils upping their pace and points per possession rate.
Colorado plays at a much slower pace overall but tends to run with the up-tempo teams in the Pac-12 so ASU’s pace should dictate the style of this game. An excellent point guard matchup between Martin and McKinley Wright should help scoring, and the Sun Devils having nothing to lose should allow them to maximize their preferred style. I see a game in the 150s that gets over this total.
NCAA Basketball – Portland vs. Santa Clara -13 (-110): 11:00 PM CT on Stadium
It’s been a rough season for Portland, and reports are that the Pilots are short on players for this opening-round game of the West Coast Conference tournament and have essentially packed it in. That wouldn’t be much of a surprise after 12 straight losses, no conference wins, and an 8-point home loss to San Diego as the only WCC game that stayed within a 15-point margin.
This team is 316th in shooting percentage, 342nd in rebounding, and 341st in defensive rating so they’re easy to blow out before they became shorthanded for this contest. With Josip Vrankic finishing his senior season strong, Santa Clara should be able to dominate Portland inside, cruise to an easy win, and move on in the weird WCC bracket.
Tiny Nick is 186-113 ATS (+66.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
