Locks
NCAA Basketball – Western Carolina/Citadel Under 159 (-110): 4:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Citadel under. That’s it. That’s the handicap.
I’m getting tired of repeating myself about The Citadel’s 12-1 under run, but apparently, Vegas isn’t tired of repeatedly lining these totals too high. To make matters even more obvious, this opening-round game of the SoCon tournament gives us an opportunity to look back on the regular-season matchups between the Bulldogs and Catamounts.
Those games hit 151 and 137 total points and, you guessed it, went under. WCU is on their own nice 12-4 under run, the product of an offense that only scores 0.985 points per possession. Add in this Citadel team that’s now really struggling offensively with only 0.808 points per possession in their last 3 games, and this one should be easy. Good thing I’m not tired of repeatedly cashing tickets on these unders.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Canisius @ Siena -6 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3
We’re almost out of time to play the zig-zag trend for this crazy season, but at least one more in this game looks like a good opportunity. Siena is the much better team here overall, cruising to the MAAC regular-season title behind a strong defense that’s 18th in points allowed and 40th in defensive efficiency.
But the toughest time to play the Saints is in the second leg of these MAAC doubleheaders, where Siena is 7-0 straight up with a 4.7 point average improved margin. When those are home games for the Saints they’re 3-0 straight up and ATS with a 9.7 point average improved margin. In second legs for Canisius, they’re 2-3 ATS and have a worse margin of 6.8 points on average. With Siena winning and covering yesterday on this same line, I like the Saints to continue their zig-zag trend and cruise to an easy win.
Tiny Nick is 187-114 ATS (+66.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.