Locks
NCAA Basketball – Appalachian St./Georgia St. Over 135.5 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Sun Belt Fun Belt! While that saying might be more accurate for football, I think we’re also in for a higher-scoring game in this conference championship.
This total was bet down from the opener of 140, which I was ready to take the over on, so I’m glad the steam has brought it down here. These teams have played three times this season, with totals of 135, 151, and 156 points. Both teams shot extremely poorly from deep in the lowest of those three, but better accuracy in the other two pushed them well over the respective totals.
App St. might play at a slower tempo, but their offense has firepower and guards with “in-the-gym” range that they’ll need to keep up with a Georgia St. team that’s 18th in points per game and 29th in offensive rating. The Mountaineers have also played overtime games the past two nights, so tired legs on defense and a tourney berth on the line should push this over a relatively low total.
NCAA Basketball – South Dakota vs. North Dakota St. -2.5 (-110): 8:45 PM CT on ESPN+
These two teams split their regular-season doubleheader just over a week ago, and the two games were drastically different.
A 9-point South Dakota win was followed by a 12-point NDSU victory, so what explains the difference? One simple factor: Star Coyotes guard A.J. Plitzuweit was injured in the first matchup and lost for the rest of the season. This team just isn’t the same without him to complement Stanley Umude in what was an elite scoring duo that could’ve carried the Coyotes to the Summit title.
But their season will end here. This line is far too short for a good and battle-tested Bison team that has already shown what it can do against a depleted South Dakota squad, so lay the short price. As a bonus play in this game, I would look to the over 138.5 points as all three matchups went over that total and South Dakota wants to play offense but little to no defense.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Mercer +5 vs UNC Greensboro (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Mercer really looks like that team we see every March who has been inconsistent all year but has the talent to make a run in a tournament setting. The Bears are still under the radar in the market despite their run to the SoCon title game here. If they can force Greensboro into a higher-scoring game they should be a live dog in this contest because they’re the far superior shooting team.
The Spartans are extremely unbalanced offensively, relying on Isaiah Miller for 26% of their scoring, and Mercer can slow him down with one of the best on-ball defenders in the SoCon in Neftali Alvarez. Scoring won’t come easy against a great Greensboro defense, but Mercer has the most talent in the conference and they appear to be putting it together at the right time, so I’ll take 5 points and also be rooting for the outright upset.
Tiny Nick is 189-115 ATS (+67.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
