Locks
NCAA Basketball – Baylor -5 vs. Houston (-110): 4:15 PM CT on CBS
Let’s be honest, the tournament run for the Cougars hasn’t exactly been a murderer’s row. They’ve played nothing but double-digit seeds and narrowly escaped two of them. In fact, the only Houston opponent all year was a top-30 team in KenPom (their win over Texas Tech in November), so a Baylor team that’s undoubtedly one of the best two teams in the country will be a shock to their system.
The Baylor offense, led by the best backcourt in the country, is just too explosive and presents too many mismatches even for an excellent defense like Houston’s. We also saw in the 2nd half of the Oregon State game what happens to Houston if they can’t get second-chance points, as a 17-point halftime lead was erased and the Cougars’ 192nd-ranked field goal percentage was exposed. I was not surprised to see smart money jump all over Baylor at the open of -4, and think there’s still value here at less than two full possessions worth of points.
The Bears have it rolling again on the level they did before their February pause, so I trust them to cover this number and give us the title game we’ve been expecting all year against Gonzaga.
NCAA Basketball – Gonzaga 1H -8.5 vs. UCLA (-110): 7:35 PM CT on CBS
There are plenty of bets on Gonzaga to like in this game, including the full game side to some extent, but there are also plenty of reasons to isolate the first half here. Chief among them is the excellent starts Gonzaga has been getting out to in the tournament, leading by at least 10 points at the half in every game so far.
Conversely, UCLA has been ice cold out of the gates in the last two games, scoring just 13 points in the first ten minutes of their Alabama game, and only 4 points in the first ten minutes against Michigan. Truly awful shooting from both opponents kept the Bruins afloat in those games – and really throughout this tournament – but that kind of performance will get you buried in a hurry against Gonzaga.
I also see this full game side heading to -15 or even -16 by tipoff, and with how Gonzaga has put it on cruise control in second halves during the tournament I’m much more interested in betting on their maximum effort during the first 20 minutes and avoiding any backdoor potential.
Bonus Bet: Gonzaga has averaged 45.3 points in the first halves of their tournament games and scored no less than 43 points. Most books have an isolated first-half team total of around 39 for the Zags, and I would play that over if it’s available for all the reasons detailed above. Plus they just put up 49 in the first half against USC, a much better team with a much better defense than UCLA, so the Bulldogs are rolling and you should capitalize on that as much as possible.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 211-136 ATS (+67.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
