Locks
NBA – 76ers/Heat over 218.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
I’m staying on the Miami Heat over train for at least one more game, as this has been too profitable a streak to give up on now. It’s been ten straight overs for the Heat, and not many of them were particularly close as the average margin to the total is +15.4 points.
The Heat to have figured it out offensively, as a team that’s spent the season in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive efficiency is 2nd-best over their past three games. And defensive struggles have coincided with this stretch as well, with Miami’s 7th-best overall defense allowing 114.2 PPG over these ten games.
That all should add up to plenty more scoring tonight with the Philadelphia 76ers in town, especially considering the season series has seen regulation totals of 240 and 233 points. This is a moderate total by today’s NBA standards and is not factoring Miami’s recent change in style enough, so I’ll ride the trend again here.
NBA – Kings/Grizzlies under 231.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBC Sports CA
A fairly surprising statistic is that the Sacramento Kings, whose defense for much of the season rated as the worst in NBA history, is 8-2 to the under in their last ten games, with nine of them going under this number. They’ve actually held opponents under 110 points in seven of those games, so apparently, De’Aaron Fox was the problem defensively as he’s missed all of this ten-game stretch.
He remains out tonight against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has some sneaky under trends of their own including a 20-14 under record at home, and a 12-9 under record as a home favorite. The Grizzlies held a much more potent Dallas Mavericks offense to just 104 points on Tuesday, and Sacramento has been held under their season average in points eight times in their last ten games.
With the Kings missing Fox and likely several other key offensive pieces tonight, I’m looking for a slower-paced game where Sacramento struggles to score and Memphis grinds down the clock — especially with this being the front end of a doubleheader.
NBA – Trail Blazers/Suns over 234.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
This total has been rocketing up with two strong over teams squaring off, and I still see value in the over based on how these squads have been playing. The Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns have identical 21-14 records to the over in the road/home situational split here. They also both have positive ROI in the underdog/favorite split and the road dog/home favorite split.
The Blazers are also in the unenviable position of being on the second leg of a back-to-back, creating a high-scoring situational spot as the Suns take advantage of tired defenses to hit the over at a 65% clip when they have a rest advantage. These teams are both top-5 in the NBA in offensive efficiency over their last three games, and the once-proud Suns defense has really struggled lately, contributing to a 9-1 over run for Phoenix.
Damian Lillard loves showing out on national TV and this should be a fast-paced game between two teams scoring at elite levels, so grab the over before it steams too high.
Degenerates
NBA – Magic +14 @ Hawks (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Yes, the Orlando Magic are bad. Like really bad. Like doing everything they can to get the first pick bad.
But let’s examine the spot a little closer here. The Atlanta Hawks just last night clinched avoiding the play-in, meaning they’ve clinched a standard playoff berth. Historically speaking, teams who clinch the playoffs, division, or whatever the case may be are not sharp in their next game. That’s particularly true when they get right back to it the next day, a spot where the Hawks really struggle as they’re 5-8-1 ATS on no rest and 3-7-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
Now, Atlanta can beat Orlando with their eyes closed and run them out by 40 if they wanted. But I don’t buy that they’re motivated to do anything other than coast to a win here. The Hawks have failed to cover in three straight and should be tired from their recent stretch of fast-paced games, so I see them winning this comfortably but not too comfortably – take the points.
Tiny Nick is 250-162 ATS (+78.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
