NBA – Bulls @ Nets Team Total Over 123.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on YES
Sometimes all you need to know when handicapping a number is the narrative surrounding it, and that’s what we have here with the Brooklyn Nets.
If it feels like we’ve seen Brooklyn’s star trio on the floor together for all of about a minute this season, that can’t be far from the truth. Well, they’re back for this one, and I’m expecting big things from the big three. If they want to show out like I expect they do, that shouldn’t be much trouble against a middling Chicago Bulls defense with nothing to play for after officially being eliminated from the play-in last night.
The Nets have gone over this total four times in their last ten games playing with various combinations of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, so I’m confident that adding James Harden to the mix will allow them to score like the team we’ve been expecting all season. Since I don’t know what kind of effort we’ll get out of Chicago in general and the fact that they’ve been on a long under run, isolating Brooklyn (who’s still fighting for the 2-seed) for their over is the best approach to this game.
NBA – Heat/Bucks over 231.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
Despite a low-scoring affair on Thursday for their first under in three weeks, I still have faith that the Miami Heat have transformed into a team that can score at will.
The Heat are still averaging 120 PPG over their last eight contests and have gone over this total in five of six – a massive offensive output that should lead to a track meet against a team like the Milwaukee Bucks. They have also gone over this total in five of their last six games, and own the 4th-worst defensive efficiency mark in the NBA over their last three games.
They also love to get out and run with the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA, and those added possessions will create a lot of points for a Miami offense averaging an insane 1.24 points per possession in their last three games. I’ll count on styles and recent trends to make for a shootout in this one.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 254-164 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.