Locks
NBA – Rockets/Hawks over 231.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on SportsNet SW
This total immediately caught my eye because of the way the Houston Rockets have been playing and what the Atlanta Hawks are playing for. The Hawks have seeding implications on the line in this one, with an outside shot of hosting a playoff series. For that reason and because their starting rotation is healthy, I think we’ll see plenty of minutes and effort from the starters in this game.
That’s good news for over bettors with the Hawks facing a Rockets team that’s now 27th in defensive rating. Houston’s abandonment of defense to close the season has resulted in seven straight overs, six of their last nine have flown over this total, and they’re 18-11 to the over as a road underdog. Atlanta has been trending over as well, with five of six going over this total. Scoring should be through the roof in what Houston will treat as essentially a pick-up game, so take the over.
Bonus Bet: Teams have been reaching the 120 point threshold with ease against Houston to close the season. Seven times in their last ten games as the Rockets are allowing an average of 126.4 PPG in this stretch. Atlanta’s team total sits at 121.5 and presents good value for a Hawks team averaging 124.2 PPG in their last six, and will now get probably the least defensive resistance they’ve seen all season.
NBA – Mavericks/Timberwolves over 230 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
To close out a frustrating season, why wouldn’t the Minnesota Timberwolves just let it rip in this finale? They tried to yesterday but an abysmal 13.5% day from deep held down their scoring, so I’m expecting positive regression in that department, even for a poor 3-point shooting team like Minnesota.
The Wolves have nothing to play for except ping-pong balls, but the Dallas Mavericks do as they would likely drop to the 6th seed with a loss. A finally healthy Dallas team should get plenty of minutes from Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis in this game, both of whom have torched the Wolves this season. The Mavericks have alternated offensive explosions and defensive collapses in hitting the over in four straight and is an excellent bet to hit the over as a road favorite at 67% this season.
The season series has averaged 242.5 PPG, both overs, and with a better shooting performance from Minnesota, this game can easily do the same.
Bonus Bet: Porzingis has owned the Wolves in both meetings this season by dropping 27 and 29 points, and now The Unicorn has a point total prop of just 19.5 for this one. While there’s a risk of this game getting out of hand and him seeing a lot of the bench, I’ll still roll with the over on his points prop and count on enough early dominance to get it done.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 254-166 ATS (+77.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
