Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/23

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NBA – Lakers/Suns over 213 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

I know, I know, it’s playoff basketball where everything changes and scoring is lower. While that holds true more often than not, I’m looking closely at how these teams played down the stretch of the regular season and in their season series.

The Phoenix Suns started out as an excellent under team, but thanks to a 15-5 over run to close the season, they ended up the 2nd best over team in the league. They also know how to put up points against this excellent Los Angeles Lakers defense, averaging 111.7 PPG in the season series which is a full five points over the average points allowed by the Lakers.

It’s also important to note that in the 3-game season series both LeBron James and Anthony Davis played once, and not in the same game, yet the series was 2-1 to the over. I’m not a believer that James and AD are at full strength, and that would hamper them most on the defensive end against this hot Suns offense.

All three totals in the regular season were in the neighborhood of 216, so with this discount and the team trends, I’m taking the over on a fairly low total.

NBA – Grizzlies/Jazz over 217 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

The Utah Jazz swept the season series against the Memphis Grizzlies, and in the process managed a 3-0 sweep against this particular total, averaging 228.3 PPG. They only went 2-1 to the overs for those games, however, and the one that stayed under had a key difference – Donovan Mitchell didn’t play.

In case you didn’t hear, Spider is back for the playoffs and I see the scoring picking up as a result. Utah was the 3rd-best team in offensive efficiency before Mitchell’s injury, and they certainly know how to score against the Grizzlies — a team that struggles to defend elite guard play. Memphis has also been a great over bet when they’re on the road this season at 62.2%, and it goes to 63.6% when they’re also in the underdog role away from home.

Of all the opening round games this has been the only one to see significant line movement to the over, telling me sharps are seeing the same thing. With Mitchell poised to make a splashy return and these teams knowing how to score on each other, I’ll roll with the smart money here on the over.

Degenerates

No generates today.

Tiny Nick is 261-170 ATS (+80.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN I’m not understanding why the Clippers are favored […]

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