Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/10

Photo Credit: Michael McLoone (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NBA – Nets First Half Team Total over 58.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Brooklyn Nets are averaging 62.1 points in the first half of their games this postseason, and that includes the horrid start to Game 1 against the Boston Celtics before their elite offense woke up. They’ve also done the balance of their scoring in the first halves of this series, averaging 64 points compared to 56 in the second halves. That creates natural value to the over here with this first half team total being exactly 50% of their full game total instead of the 53.3% trend. I really don’t expect much different out of the Nets offense as this series shifts to Milwaukee, but I do see the Bucks playing with a high sense of urgency in this game and coming out firing. Given the amount of bricks they’ve been laying in the first two games, that should create plenty of extra possessions and run-out opportunities for Brooklyn early. I expect the Nets to capitalize on those opportunities and continue scoring at will early in this game.

NBA – PART 2 Nets +3.5 (-110) @ Milwaukee: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Nets roll into this game with a plus spread and plus moneyline after absolutely torching the Bucks in Brooklyn. I understand home court for Giannis Antetokounmpo could make a huge difference, but I’m going to make a play on the + moneyline (+140) as well as the + spread (+3.5) after losing all confidence in the Bucks earlier this week. This Nets team is destined to win it all whether James Harden comes back or not, as long as they keep their other two stars healthy. As for the Bucks winning a game in this series, I’ll believe it when I see it.

NBA Bonus Lock: Giannis Antetokounpo over 32 Points (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I fully expect Giannis to come out on a mission to avenge his embarrassing two games in Brooklyn, especially in front of a home crowd that will be rocking tonight in Milwaukee. I expect Giannis not to get pulled early in what should be a higher energy game throughout. As we saw earlier this year against the Bucks, and even this series, if the Bucks are going to have any success against the Nets, Giannis needs to exploit their defensive mismatches early and often. As I said before, I don’t think the Bucks should be a favorite but I will roll with the Greek Freak to score over 32 points tonight.

MLB – Yankees/Twins over 11 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

If you’re not in Minnesota, consider yourself lucky that you’re not dealing with the heat and humidity punishing the state. One possible advantage to a triple-digit heat index is what those conditions will do for baseballs that haven’t exactly been jumping off bats this MLB season. And whether it’s the high temperatures or just Twins pitching, the Yankees offense has also warmed up considerably as they’ve shaken off plenty of questions to score 17 runs in the first two games of this series. Minnesota’s offense showing up or not is a tougher question to answer, but Yankees starter Michael King has not been used for long stretches this season, so the Twins could easily see lots of the vulnerable middle relievers for New York. An important trend to note is how games have gone for Twins starter J.A. Happ, as six of his last seven starts have met or exceeded this total with an average of 13.9 runs in that stretch. Twins pitching can be the cure for what ails your offense, so I’ll count on a seemingly rejuvenated Yankee lineup to keep it going in weather conditions that give a natural boost to bats.

MLB – Yankees ML (-130) @ Twins: 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Let’s keep this one short, the Twins are really struggling right now and I can’t think of a worse team to be in town for them to be going up against than the New York Yankees. J.A. Happ has struggled in a big way for the Twins this year; I don’t see him being the one to stop the bleeding tonight. Look for Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and company to take advantage of another hot night with a weak lefty arm on the mound en route to a sweep of the lowly Minnesota Twins.

Degenerates

NBA – Clippers @ Jazz (-115 First Quarter): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Everyone saw the abysmal start for the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night as extra rest translated to a little rust before they finally got it going. To only be down seven points after one quarter was a minor miracle. Bless your heart if you think a team that’s second in offensive efficiency and third in effective field goal rate is going to miss 21 consecutive shots in a quarter again. Over their seven-game series against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, the L.A. Clippers were leading after the first quarter only once. By only putting up 25 points of their own in Tuesday’s first quarter, the Clippers were all but asking to lose another opening 12 minutes. Count me as a believer that the Jazz team from the second half of Game 1 will carry over into the early stages of this game as they’ve learned their lesson about messing around with slow starts.

MLB – 2-Team Parlay Marlins & Athletics Moneylines (+145)

Leg 1: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins (-210)  6:10PM on Bally Sports FL

I’ve highlighted how bad the Rockies are on the road before, and it hasn’t gotten any better as they’re now 5-23 away from Coors Field. They’ve also lost the last four road starts by tonight’s starter Chi Chi Gonzalez. They’ll be up against the best starter for Miami in Trevor Rogers, who’s only earned more than two runs once this season and the Marlins are 3-1 in his home starts. The Marlins might be NL East cellar-dwellars but they can handle an awful Rockies team with their best pitcher. Laying this moneyline of more than two dollars is excessive, so I’ll combine it with this next leg to get plus juice.

Leg 2: KC Royals @ Oakland Athletics (-150)  8:40PM on NBC Sports CA

These are two teams on opposite trajectories right now, and the slight struggles for A’s starter Frankie Montas is holding this line down from where it should be. Montas may have lost three of his last four starts, but he got next to no run support in the losses. Oakland’s bats have found their pop again, and are much better against left-handed pitchers like they’ll face tonight in Royals starter Mike Minor. After a strong start to the season KC is now just 2-5 over Minor’s last seven starts, and they’ve lost five-straight overall, scoring a mere 10 total runs over those five games. This is too short a line for a good team against a bad team, and pairing it with Miami to get a solid buyback is great value in my opinion.

Tiny Nick is 286-184 ATS (+90.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Michael McLoone (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+125) New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox (-180): 6:10 PM CT on ESPN I’m shocked the moneyline for a […]

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