NBA – Bucks Team Total under 114.5 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on ABC
There’s a lot of conventional wisdom saying the Milwaukee Bucks are due to have one of their typical offensive explosions that have eluded them so far in this series. After all, they were the highest-scoring team in the NBA this season, and it’s not like the Brooklyn Nets invented defense or anything. But I’ve seen enough out of them in this series to know something is critically wrong in Milwaukee.
Whether it’s a problem with coaching, the players’ basketball IQ, or maybe both, something peripheral to the game has to explain why the Bucks are shooting 42% from the field and an atrocious 22% from deep through three games. They just scored 86 points in back-to-back games and have averaged 93 in the series, so there’s absolutely no reason to think they can surpass this total.
I see the Bucks trying to execute a similar game plan to Thursday when they maxed out the physicality in what looked like early-90’s NBA, both on the court and the scoreboard. That combined with their recent proficient brick-laying should keep them well under this number.
NBA – 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+190)
Nets (-130) @ Bucks: 2:00 PM CT on ABC
Despite an awful start to the game and a closing stretch that saw Bruce Brown go rogue, the Brooklyn Nets had every right to win Game 3 on Thursday. I just don’t see them losing to Milwaukee again in this series, as the offense for the Bucks has turned into an abject disaster at the worst possible time.
Kevin Durant had an inefficient 30-point game on Thursday, and I expect him to adapt to the physical style Milwaukee is trying to play against him and Kyrie Irving to put this series all but out of reach. It’s extremely telling to see the line movement go from the Bucks laying 3.5 on Thursday to Brooklyn laying 2 here after a win by the Bucks. I’m sure Milwaukee will try to turn this into an ugly slugfest, so I’ll just count on Brooklyn to get the win and tie their moneyline to this next leg.
Suns (-150) @ Nuggets: 7:00 PM CT on TNT
Sorry Denver fans (one in particular, you know who you are) but the Nuggets are finished. The Phoenix Suns truly are as good as they’ve looked so far in these playoffs, and I see them getting the brooms out tonight. Their underrated defense has really shown in this series, clamping down on anyone not named Nikola Jokic and holding Denver to 42.6% shooting from the field.
That’s made for a 1.032 points per possession allowed mark that would’ve lead the NBA this season. Case-in-point was Friday when Jokic posted an eye-popping triple-double stat line, but the Suns controlled the game from start to finish. There’s more line movement in this game that’s sending you a message, as the Suns went from +3 for Friday’s game to -3.5 today.
Phoenix has every motivation to make this as short a series as possible and give Chris Paul time for his shoulder to heal while they wait for their West Finals opponent. That makes me love them to win this game, so with a spread that’s a little awkward to lay, I really love tying a straight-up win to Brooklyn for a nice plus-price on this parlay.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 293-189 ATS (+91.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.