NBA – 76ers Team Total Over 114.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – this number is the absolute bare-bones basement-floor minimum of what the Philadelphia 76ers have produced in these playoffs, giving them a 7-1 mark to the over on their team totals. They’re now averaging 123 PPG in this series, and since their frantic comeback attempt in the 2nd half of Game 1, they have been able to score at will against the Atlanta Hawks.
Through three games the Sixers are shooting a scorching 55% and managing 1.203 points per possession against a Hawks defense that came in getting a lot of praise. Those are marks that would’ve led the NBA this season by a wide margin, and Philly has no reason to slow down given they only have a one-game lead in the series.
Since there’s still no serious adjustment from books on this number, I’m going after it again here as the Sixers should keep getting whatever they want offensively.
NBA – 76ers -3.5 (-110) @ Hawks: 6:30 PM CT on TNT
This is not my favorite kind of number to lay with the road team in a situation where the Hawks will be playing in desperation mode, but Philadelphia has shown enough dominance for me to back them here. The Sixers have looked in complete control for basically the last 10 quarters of basketball, especially at the offensive end, as I mentioned above.
Atlanta shocked pretty much everyone in Game 1, but the conventional wisdom that they’re overmatched in this series is bearing out. What sells it for me is Game 3, where Sixers center Joel Embiid did considerably less scoring than the first two games, yet Philly rolled by 16 points for the second straight game.
It’s also an interesting wrinkle that this series had an extra day off after Game 3, giving Embiid more time to rest and treat his knee. But if the 76ers don’t even need to lean on Embiid, as they showed on Friday, they’ll roll again here as they look to head home and close this series out in five games.
MLB – Angels Team Total Under 4 Runs (-110): 8:40 PM CT on NBC Sports-CA
Don’t let this hot streak by the Los Angeles Angels fool you. Sure they’ve scored 7.9 runs per game over their last eight, but they’ve been feasting on the awful pitching of the Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, and Arizona Diamondbacks, none of whom have a starting pitcher on Sean Manaea‘s level.
It was a slower start to the season for Manaea, but the Throwin’ Samoan has put it all together in his last four starts, two of which came against these Angels. Those four games have seen Manaea only give up 2 total runs in more than 26 innings of work as he’s lowered his ERA by 1.32 points.
The Angels haven’t had great success putting up runs against the Oakland A’s all season, surpassing this total once in the seven times they’ve played while averaging just 3 runs per game. Plus they’re worse against left-handed pitching like they’ll see for most of this game tonight.
This total is much lower than the recent trend for the Angels for a good reason, and I see Manaea continuing his dominance tonight as he cools off the Halo bats.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 295-190 ATS (+91.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.