Locks
MLB – Cardinals/Braves over 9 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South
These two starting pitchers used to be fairly dominant, but that hasn’t been the case lately, and it should lead to runs with these teams tonight. John Gant, the starter for the St. Louis Cardinals, finally had a low ERA that didn’t match his xFIP catch up with him, giving up 12 runs in 5.2 innings over his last two starts.
I see that continuing tonight against a strong Atlanta Braves lineup that has put up 16 runs over their last two games. Atlanta’s starting pitcher, Charlie Morton, has also struggled recently with an ERA of 6.00 in June and 11 runs allowed in his last 14 innings of work. Additionally, Morton’s eight home starts this season have averaged 11 total runs per game and are 5-1-2 over this number.
Atlanta’s middle relievers have been overworked recently, so the Cardinals should be able to get to both Morton — who doesn’t pitch late into games — and his relief. On a hot day in Truist Park with a slight breeze blowing out to left, I see two powerful lineups teeing off on subpar pitching.
NBA – Bucks Team Total Under 114.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN
Admittedly this bet did not look good for most of Tuesday’s Game 5 as the Milwaukee Bucks managed to find some offense for three quarters. But their old shooting woes came back to haunt them in the fourth, keeping them just below the 110.5 point total.
Tonight, because of the married side-total equation and movement on both numbers, books are forced to raise Milwaukee’s isolated total by four points from last game despite staying under in every game this series. That creates natural value on this play that I’m happy to exploit. We’re into Game 6 here with the Bucks facing elimination, and that makes defense and measured possessions all the more important and likely to define this game.
There’s no way I can bet on Milwaukee to do something they’ve never done in five straight tries, so I’ll trust the trends and make the value play here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 298-194 ATS (+90.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
