Locks
MLB – Mets/Padres First 5 Innings under 3 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network
It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a full game total this low, and I absolutely think that number of 6 is warranted. I hate full-game unders though because of the extra innings rules, so I’m targeting the first five innings when these two red-hot starting pitchers will be at work.
There’s seemingly no team that Jacob deGrom can’t dominate, having never earned more than one run in any start this season. The only team Joe Musgrove can’t dominate is the San Francisco Giants, as every other start has seen him allow no more than two earned runs, and he’s given up one total run over his last four starts.
In fact, take out his two starts against San Francisco and Musgrove has a total of five earned runs in fifty innings of work, good for a 0.90 ERA that amazingly is still higher than deGrom’s for the season. These are two starters who are pitching at an elite level this season and can dominate the opposing bats tonight, but neither tends to pitch late into games so target this early total when you can bank on their performances.
NBA – Bucks/Nets over 59.5 First Quarter (-110) 6:30 PM CT on TNT
The Milwaukee Bucks are among the many teams that have never faced the might of the Big 3 playing together. They should ask the Boston Celtics how much fun that is after the Brooklyn Nets averaged 128.3 PPG in their last four games to end the first round. Needless to say, this Nets team is clicking right now on the offensive end, and with how the Bucks looked in sweeping the Miami Heat they are as well.
That said, the instinct of both these teams is to get out and run, neither truly wants to play a half-court game even if this is the playoffs. That instinct showed itself during the regular season series as their three first quarters all eclipsed this number and averaged 64.7 points. Brooklyn didn’t score any less than 31 points in the first quarter of their last four games against Boston once the Big 3 got rolling, and that should continue here as well.
This game could easily settle down late as the magnitude of playoff stakes amplifies, so I’ll target these teams to do what they do best right out of the gate.
Bonus Bet: There are a couple of key injuries in this game that I think will amplify offense overall – Donte DiVincenzo for the year and Jeff Green for at least this game. Green saw most of the defensive assignment against Giannis Antetokounmpo in the regular season series and the Greek Freak averaged 55.3 PAR (Points/Rebounds/Assists). For this game, his prop total for that sits at 51.5 and I like the over given the lesser defenders that he’ll see tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 276-180 ATS (+84.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
