Locks
MLB – Twins/Royals over 9.5 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’ll admit to not really knowing who the guy starting for the Minnesota Twins today is. That’s not generally a good sign for a baseball team’s potential success, but it does give me reason to believe a lot of runs will be scored today.
These teams have continued to show they can combine for runs, as they’re now averaging 12.3 runs per game over the season series with the lowest output at 9 runs. Mixing a rookie pitcher in Bailey Ober with the struggling Brady Singer for the Kansas City Royals gives me confidence that there can be one more run scored than the floor of what these teams have been producing.
Singer’s ERA has been steadily climbing all season, and if Ober is used in more of an opener role that means the leaky Twins bullpen will see a lot of work. With the wind blowing out to left in Kaufmann Stadium on a warm day, I like these pitchers to surrender plenty of runs in another high-scoring game between these teams.
MLB – Reds @ Cardinals ML (-120): 1:15 PM CT on ESPN+
I simply refuse to believe the Cincinnati Reds are going to go in and sweep a 4-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals. I especially refuse to believe it with John Gant on the mound for the Cards today. If you’re looking for hot under-the-radar starters in MLB, it doesn’t get much better than Gant, who gets little respect from oddsmakers despite the 5th-best ERA in baseball.
He’s also fresh off allowing zero runs to the potent Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox lineups in their ballparks over his last two starts. Let’s also remember that we’ve already seen this exact pitching matchup this season when Gant outdueled Reds starter Wade Miley in a 2-0 Cardinals home win in April, a game that featured a much healthier Cincinnati lineup, including Joey Votto.
This is a disrespectfully short line given Gant’s strength, so I’ll back him again here as I see the Cards avoiding the home sweep.
NBA – Mavericks +7 @ Clippers (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
Yep, I still would love to see the oddity of a seven-game series having no wins by the home team. It’s a trend that really can’t be ignored at this point regardless of what the explanation for it is. Even including the regular season games the home team is 1-8 straight up, and for our purposes against the spread as well.
This should be a hard-fought game with defensive intensity dialed all the way up, and that makes this too many points for a shaky team like the Los Angeles Clippers to be laying. Historically, home teams have a massive advantage in NBA Game 7’s and have won them outright at around an 80% clip, but it’s an even 5-5 split over the last 10 instances. That combined with 7 points in my back pocket gives me a good deal of comfort in backing the Dallas Mavericks here.
Luka Doncic did not play particularly well in Game 6, so a bounce back from him and the crazy trends between these teams has me taking the points in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 278-180 ATS (+86.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
