NBA – Bucks/Nets over 234 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
Positive regression on shooting after low-scoring outputs is something that’s been a hallmark of the Milwaukee Bucks all season long, including the playoffs, and I’m counting on it to heavily impact this game.
After a hot start for both teams in Game 1 that saw 124 points at halftime, the Bucks went ice cold in the second half, where they only put up 46 points. The main culprit was three-point shooting as Milwaukee was an abysmal 20% from deep, an outlier performance for the 4th-best team from long range this season.
You only need to look back to the first round against the Miami Heat to see the parallel for tonight, when the Bucks shot 16% from deep in Game 1 but followed it up with a 42% night and 22 made threes en route to 132 points in the next game.
There was also a big drop-off in attempted and made free throws for both teams in Game 1, as an average night from the charity stripe would’ve netted an extra 15 points for the game. Given the poor shooting stats and positive regression potential, this is a big discount from the Game 1 total, and I expect a much more consistent offensive performance from both teams to push this one over.
NBA – Bucks/Nets Bonus Bet: Because of the mean reversion that I expect out of Milwaukee on the offensive end, I also believe that they’ll win this game. It’s a huge opportunity to steal home court in this series with James Harden out, and that might be enough to convince Mike Budenholzer to get playoff usage out of his star players. The only regular-season matchup that the Brooklyn Nets won was the one game Harden played in, and smart money recognizes the disadvantage for Brooklyn as the line has been steadily moving towards the Bucks. Be sure to grab Milwaukee while there’s still buyback at +110 before the favorite flips in this one.
NBA – Bucks/Nets Extra Bonus Bet: Not if but when Milwaukee wins Game 2 to take control of home court and the series, their price to win the series will shift dramatically. I believe that the current number of +170 represents the best value that will be available the rest of the way, so I’m pouncing on it now before a significant advantage for the Bucks gets priced into the number.
Tiny Nick is 279-183 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.