Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/12

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

No locks today.

Degenerates

MLB Home Run Derby: 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

All eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani tonight, and he’s the odds-on favorite at +220. But it’s no fun to take the favorite in any kind of futures market, so here are the guys I think have a chance to win this and carry a very favorable return:

Juan Soto (+1000):

Soto gets the 8-seed and will have to match up against Ohtani in the first round, but pulling off the early upset would give him a nice path to the finals and a live ticket at these long odds.

Because the Washington Nationals have failed to live up to expectations, their left fielder is flying a bit under the radar this season and for this derby. With just 11 home runs on the year, he’s well behind most of the other competitors. But this guy hits the ball really hard as he has the 12th-highest average exit velocity in baseball.

It’ll be tough to upset the top seed. But at these odds, I’ll take a shot to collect a big return.

Trevor Story (+925):

Going to the other side of the bracket for this other longshot prevents one from knocking out the other, and Story might have a hidden home-field advantage in this contest. Story has the 20th-highest average launch angle in baseball, just 0.4 degrees lower than Ohtani, who is famous for his towering moonshots.

The Colorado Rockies shortstop has played half his career games at tonight’s venue Coors Field, and he knows that hitting them high like he tends to do will get the ball to carry in the thin air. He would also need to pull off an upset in the first round – against Joey Gallo who has been getting a lot of betting attention and also hits it really high – but with a little home cooking I like Story to be competitive tonight and cash a big potential return.

Tiny Nick is 327-225 ATS (+87.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing (USA TODAY Sports)

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