Locks
No locks today.
Degenerates
MLB – Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110): 6:15 PM CT on MLB Network
First five inning unders are extremely dependent on the starting pitching, and I think the starters in this game are being undervalued. It’s easy to look at Chicago Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay’s 4-9 record and 4.59 ERA and assume he’s a bad pitcher to bet on, but that’s not telling the whole story for this game.
Alzolay struggles against left-handed bats, but the St. Louis Cardinals have very few options from that side of the plate, and none of them produce for power. That leaves Alzolay up against a lot of righties who he dominates with a .181 average and .516 OPS against.
The other side of this matchup pits a struggling and soon-to-be-traded Cubs lineup against Kwang Hyun Kim who has been outstanding recently. Kim has given up 1 run over his last 24 innings of work, which includes 6 innings of shutout ball against this Cubs team two starts ago.
First-5’s between these teams in St. Louis this year are 4-2 under this number, so I’ll count on another quiet start in this game given the strong pitching and weak offenses.
Tiny Nick is 331-232 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
