Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/28

Photo Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Locks

MLB – Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110) @ Pittsburgh Pirates:  6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

This play just keeps working as we saw yesterday, so there’s no sense in going against it.

After the Milwaukee Brewers smacked the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-0 last night, their record against the run line at PNC Park moved to 4-1, and they grew their run differential to a massive plus-26 in those games. I think their starter tonight, Adrian Houser, is underappreciated and undervalued since he’s not one of their top three arms that are getting all the attention this season.

The Brewers are 9-1 over his last 10 starts though, with seven of those wins coming by two-plus runs including two easy wins over the Pirates. The Pittsburgh lineup is only batting .181 against him with a .518 OPS for their careers, and last night’s shutout is likely a preview of the offensive futility that will be common for the Pirates going forward.

They’re also having a bullpen game today, and with the Pirates’ pen owning the 8th-worst xFIP in baseball the Brewers should be able to score like they usually do in Pittsburgh. I’ll take the small plus-juice return on this run line instead of laying the moneyline given the matchup and history here.

MLB – Colorado Rockies/Los Angeles Angels Over 9.5 (-110): 8:38 PM CT on Bally Sports West

The Colorado Rockies found their bats last night in plating 12 runs against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and there’s reason to believe plenty more scoring is in store tonight.

The Rockies should be able to continue their hot hitting against left-hander Andrew Heaney as they have the 4th-best average against lefties in baseball. Heaney has also been considerably worse at home this season with a 5.72 ERA, and his home starts are 6-3 over this number with an average of 11.7 runs per game.

Adding more fuel for runs will be Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez and his 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. Gonzalez owns a 6.70 road ERA, is strangely much more prone to allowing the long ball outside of Coors Field, and has seen 8 of his last 9 starts easily clear this total.

There’s a solid breeze blowing out at Angel Stadium tonight and I’m expecting the quality hitters on these teams to take advantage of the poor pitching, so grab the over soon as it’s already been bet up by sharp money.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 335-237 ATS (+83.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

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