Locks
MLB – Philadelphia Phillies/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT
I couldn’t believe how low this total was considering there are two gas cans starting for both the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates in this game.
The most combustible of the two is Phillies starter Vince Velasquez who dominates the light-hitting Miami Marlins, but gets dominated by everyone else. Take out two games against Miami and his other eight most recent starts have seen him tally a 10.74 ERA and 2.16 WHIP, absolute jet fuel for overs, which is why those eight games are 7-1 over this number averaging 15.5 runs.
Before a power outage against excellent pitching this week, the Pirates were averaging 5.7 runs per game since the break and should be able to rekindle that against an awful pitcher like Velasquez. Their own starter Wil Crowe is more over fuel with a 6.05 ERA in June and July. Philadelphia’s excellent right-handed bats should take advantage of Crowe, they are allowing a .322 average and .977 OPS to righties. There’s also a decent wind blowing out of PNC Park tonight, so with a moderate total here, I love this game to easily go over.
MLB – Baseball Milwaukee Brewers/Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South
I’m willing to break a general rule about playing full game unders in this spot because of how good these starting pitchers are.
Milwaukee Brewers starter Corbin Burnes fell off a bit in early summer but has returned to dominant form. He has been a good under bet with his starts going 12-5 under this total. He has a 1.08 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his last five starts and has shut down the strong lineups of the New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, and Cincinnati Reds in his last three outings.
Burnes is actually better on the road as well with a 1.61 ERA and .181 average against in away games. Almost as impressive as that is what Atlanta Braves starter Touki Toussaint has done since returning from the injured list this month. He has allowed just two total runs and a 0.73 WHIP in over 13 innings of work against the excellent lineups of the Phillies and Padres, much better than what he’ll see tonight against a Brewers team 27th in batting average.
If you stick to the rule of only playing First 5 unders, I can’t argue with that philosophy. But given it’s less than half the full game total at a flat four runs, I’m more inclined to take this number given the excellent pitching.
MLB 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+157):
Seattle Mariners (-135) @ Texas Rangers; 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
This game really just boils down to how these teams perform when both starters take the mound, and the difference couldn’t be more stark.
All the Seattle Mariners do when Logan Gilbert starts is win, as they’re 10-2 with him on the mound this season with 10 straight wins. That includes a win over these Texas Rangers, plus a 5-0 record in road starts where Gilbert has a 2.35 ERA and .185 average against.
Kolby Allard has the opposite effect on his Rangers team, as they’re 1-9 in his starts this year, and Allard has been getting hit hard lately with a 7.84 ERA in July. The Rangers are a dumpster fire since the break with a 1-11 record, and they just shipped their best hitter out of town, so take the short price on Seattle with confidence for this first leg.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-210); 9:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SD
This big moneyline price is really only suited to be a parlay leg, so all we’re asking the San Diego Padres to do here is win to close the parlay. With a 5-2 home record against the Colorado Rockies and the most home wins in MLB, I’m confident they will come through, especially against the team with the fewest road wins in baseball.
The Padres have also yet to fully integrate newly acquired Adam Frazier, while the Rockies are likely to have shipped star Trevor Story out by the time this game starts. That speaks to the opposite trajectories of these teams and the psychological impact that will have in this first game after the trade deadline. This is more of a feel play, but the records speak for themselves, so another home win and road loss for these teams closes the parlay for a nice plus-juice return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 339-237 ATS (+87.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
