Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/13

Photo Credit: Evan Habeeb (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Baltimore Ravens/Las Vegas Raiders Over 50.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

The streak of injuries that has hit the Baltimore Ravens will have a big impact on how this game is played, and I think it means more offense is in store.

Assuming he didn’t tear an ACL brushing his teeth this morning, Lamar Jackson will be asked to do a lot more in this game with very little help from the running back position. Whether that’s with his arm or his legs, Jackson should be able to exploit a Las Vegas Raiders defense that was 30th in scoring and 25th in passing yards allowed last season.

But the Ravens will also sorely miss Marcus Peters on defense as he would’ve been a key element of stopping a strong Raiders passing game. Las Vegas has their own injury concerns at running back and should look to throw often against this weakened secondary. I don’t see a lot of impactful change in personnel or personality from last year’s high-scoring Raiders team that was 13-3 over this total, so expect more bad defense and plenty of throwing. With vulnerable defenses being attacked by strong offenses, there’s a shootout brewing in the desert.

MLB (1 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Seattle Mariners Over 8 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet NW

This game jumped out to me right away as having sneaky potential for lots of runs, especially since preconceptions of this Seattle Mariners team are holding the total down.

Yes, that Mariners team, employers of a mere three starting position players who are batting over .250, have seen their past 22 games go 15-6-1 over this total including 9 straight. Logan Gilbert’s starts have also trended higher-scoring at 12-6-2 over this number, and he has struggled recently with a 7.09 ERA in his past 7 starts.

The Boston Red Sox have been difficult to judge recently due to COVID heavily impacting their roster. But this is still a lineup that’s extremely effective against right-handers like Gilbert, owning the 2nd-best OPS and ISO power numbers and 3rd-best average in baseball. Their starter Eduardo Rodriguez can be a bit of a wild card, but there’s plenty of offensive potential in this game to where I like it to get over a fairly low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 376-276 ATS (+82.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Evan Habeeb (USA TODAY Sports)

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