Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) NY Giants/Washington Football Team Under 40.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NFL Network
True to form, Thursday Night Football is wasting no time in giving us an ugly matchup of two teams that come in with a lot of issues. Both the New York Giants and Washington Football Team have suspect offenses and key injuries, plus excellent defenses that should keep this a low-scoring affair.
With Ryan Fitzpatrick on IR and being replaced by Taylor Heinicke on a short week, the offense for Washington is going to take a step back, and they will likely lean on Antonio Gibson in the run game. They’re also facing an underrated Giants defense, with a strong secondary to further limit the Heinicke-led passing attack.
But the Giants have plenty of problems of their own on offense. Chief among them is an offensive line that looks like it would have trouble blocking a flag football team, much less Washington’s imposing defensive front. That’s only making Daniel Jones look even worse, and with Saquon Barkley playing limited snaps at best, this Giants offense will struggle against a strong defense again.
Both meetings went under last year, and the Giants have the best under record in the league at 13-3-1 since the start of last season. While this total has come down through some key numbers from the open, I still think we see an ugly game here that stays under.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Ohio/Louisiana Over 56.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
A Louisiana defense returning a ton of talent was supposed to be excellent for the Ragin’ Cajuns this season, but it’s sprung a leak through two games so far. I see those struggles continuing against a veteran Ohio Bobcats offense, while their offense feasts on a terrible defense at the same time.
It went from bad to worse for Louisiana as they surrendered 62 combined points and 946 total yards to Texas and then FCS Nicholls State. Both pass and run defense are failing the Ragin’ Cajuns, and with QB Kurtis Rourke and two excellent running backs Ohio brings a solid offense into Lafayette tonight. What Ohio doesn’t bring is any kind of defense, just having allowed 28 points to FCS Duquesne last week. Louisiana still has the talented Levi Lewis and a deep receiving corps, and they should torch Ohio with ease as they take out some frustrations from the past two weeks.
I didn’t like that this line crossed through the key number of 56 so if buying half a point is your thing, I wouldn’t fault that. But I see Louisiana potentially reaching 40 points against a bad defense that will struggle in the humid conditions, so I’m taking the over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 381-276 ATS (+86.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
