Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 4 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN2
The Colorado Rockies have shown a lot of fight recently in climbing out of the MLB cellar, and I think their offense keeps rolling here tonight against a struggling pitcher.
The Rockies have cleaned up their act on the road to some degree, and Josiah Gray starting for the Washington Nationals gives them an excellent opportunity to continue that. Gray has been brutal his past 3 starts, posting a 12.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in games where the opposing team easily cleared this total. Colorado is nothing special against right-handers like Gray – middle of the pack in most statistical categories – but they should have an easier time against him than most. And once the Rockies get into Washington’s bullpen that’s 29th in WAR and 25th in ERA and xFIP, the floodgates could open.
This is more of a feel play for me going against the market perception of Colorado’s road struggles. But with such bad pitching from the Nationals, there’s plenty to like about the Rockies reaching this fairly low isolated total.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Maryland/Illinois Over 61.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on FS1
I wanted to see what direction the line moved in this game before betting it, and a significant move to the over has me liking the chance for plenty of points tonight.
This total opened at 59, with books splitting the difference between the key numbers of 56 and 63 to see what would get supported. The 2.5 point movement on a lower-profile game here tells me smart money is supporting the over, and still being below that key number of 63 presents a lot of value. I also see plenty of reason to believe we’re in for a high-scoring affair here. Maryland’s offense has started to gel under QB Taulia Tagovailoa and some explosive weapons. They should find plenty of success against an Illinois defense that’s 92nd in PPG allowed so far, as well as 80th in points per play allowed, meaning they’re very susceptible to the big play.
The Illini also get QB Brandon Peters back from injury tonight, and that should balance out an offense that’s been too reliant on the run game. It’s a beautiful night for football in Champaign, and I don’t see a lot of defense being played in this one, so grab the over before it steams through the next key number.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Central Florida -6.5 @ Louisville (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is really just another play on the line movement creating value with key numbers. Central Florida opened as a 7.5 point favorite in this game, and it’s moved down to within a touchdown. I think they’re catching Louisville in a tough spot here as the Cardinals are playing their third game in just 12 days to open the season.
What I like about this number is that two high-powered offenses like these typically get into shootouts where the scoring happens exclusively in touchdown intervals. I think UCF is the better team here, with the more explosive offense, and only needing to win by a touchdown interval is key for me. The ACC has not been good in non-conference play, especially against quality teams, so I’m leaning towards the Knights to cover on an improved number in this one.
Tiny Nick is 382-277 ATS (+86.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
