Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/20

Photo Credit: Tim Fuller (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Green Bay Packers -5.5

I struggled with which direction to tease the side in this game since the number is sitting in a perfect spot to get through plenty of key numbers either way. But ultimately I have to trust that this game will be a bounce-back for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers after their Week 1 face plant. Rodgers is 62-38-2 ATS at home in his Packers career, and Green Bay is 6-0 ATS after their past 6 outright losses. With those trends in mind, being able to move this inside the 6-point margin against a doormat Detroit Lions team feels like the best option here.

Over 42.5

This Detroit defense was already going to be one of the worst units in the NFL, and now they’ll be missing Jeff Okudah for the rest of the season. Unless Rodgers is intentionally tanking the season out of spite, the Packers should score at will tonight. But don’t discount Detroit’s ability to score in garbage time like they did last week, which I see them trying to do again as they face a constant deficit. Stand-alone games in primetime are 5-0 to the over in this young season, and I think we see another high-scoring contest tonight, so I’ll take this 6-point discount on the total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

Last week saw the Green Bay Packers get torched on defense, surrendering two red-zone touchdowns to backup tight end Juwan Johnson. Now they have to face the much more talented T.J. Hockenson, who’s excellent near the goal line on shorter routes. Hockenson found pay dirt last week long before the Lions started their mad scramble to get back in the game, and he should get plenty of chances again tonight.

Detroit will be without wide receiver Tyrell Williams and playing catch-up all night, increasing Hockenson’s target share and opportunities. I see the Lions finding the end zone multiple times against this suspect Packers defense, and a 2 to 1 payout on Hockenson getting one of them is too juicy to pass up.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/NY Yankees First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

This New York Yankees team continues to struggle against right-handed pitching, which they’ll face again tonight. But with their own strong starter going, I see this one being low-scoring early on.

Texas Rangers starter A.J. Alexy has performed well since getting called up from the minors, and he has a chance to continue that here. He gets to face a Yankees team with the 5th-worst average against right-handed pitching this season, and who are just 18th in runs scored against righties. But I don’t see the Rangers providing any support for Alexy against his counterpart Nestor Cortes. The Yankees lefty has a 1.93 ERA at home this season, and Texas against left-handed pitching is dead last in OPS, 27th in average, and 24th in runs scored. The Rangers have also only scored 7 runs in their past 5 games.

Cooler weather has settled into the New York area, and there will be a wind blowing in tonight to help limit scoring. The pitching matchup and trends say offenses will struggle tonight, and this number has value being more than half the full game total, so I’ll take the early under.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 387-281 ATS (+89.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Tim Fuller (USA TODAY Sports)

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