Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Cincinnati Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
Another right-handed pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds to torment – and from a team that they score like crazy against – should produce plenty of runs for the Reds tonight.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are sending Mitch Keller to the mound to face Cincinnati again, and it hasn’t been a favorable matchup for him. Reds hitters have a career .333 average against Keller, and in his 3 previous starts against them this season, he’s compiled an 8.78 ERA. And Keller is allowing a .351 average and .920 OPS against left-handed hitters, which make up the bulk of Cincy’s lineup.
The Reds have also feasted on the Pirates’ pitching at home in their hitter’s ballpark this season to the tune of 8.8 runs per game. Their starter, Tyler Mahle, has a 6.09 ERA at home this season, so Cincinnati may be forced to score a lot tonight if they want to win. This is a really low number for how they’ve fared against the Pirates. Regardless of the game’s outcome, I think they clear it easily.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+105): 8:40 PM on Bally Sports AZ
The Atlanta Braves are clinging to a 3-game lead in the tumultuous NL East and need to take advantage of games like this against 100-loss teams. With how bad the Arizona Diamondbacks have been recent, I think they’ll cooperate here.
The Braves should find a favorable matchup here with Arizona starter Luke Weaver, a right-hander that Atlanta is top-6 or better against in most statistical categories. Weaver has also not been going very deep into games since his return from the injured list this month. That means the Braves will likely get lots of innings against what is objectively the worst bullpen in baseball. Atlanta hammered this D’Backs pitching staff for 11 runs last night and should be able to produce plenty of runs again here tonight.
You don’t often see a plus-juice return on the run line this late in the season when a division leader faces one of baseball’s worst teams. I realize it’s a bullpen game for Atlanta, but they should still dominate this one against a team that’s lost 15 games by the run line in the last month.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 390-282 ATS (+90.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
