Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+125)
New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox (-180): 6:10 PM CT on ESPN
I’m shocked the moneyline for a game like this is so low considering the trajectory of these teams. The New York Mets seem to be in a full collapse down the stretch, with just 5 wins in their past 16 games and playoff hopes gone. Sending Taijuan Walker back to the mound is not likely to help matters, as he’s posted a 7.63 ERA this month and the team has lost 9 of his past 10 starts.
The Boston Red Sox by contrast have re-established their grip on the wild card with 6 straight wins, and should further their playoff push tonight. It helps to have Chris Sale back in the rotation and he’s been excellent, with only 8 earned runs across his 6 starts. The Mets are very poor against left-handed pitching, so he should lead a motivated Boston squad to another win here against this collapsing Mets team.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) @ Colorado Rockies: 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM
To close this parlay all that’s needed is for a leading Cy Young candidate to record another win over a team that he has dominated. L.A. Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is already 2-0 this season in Coors Field, helping his team to a 6-2 record there overall. He has also owned this Colorado Rockies lineup in his career, as they’ve only managed a .155 average and .424 OPS against him.
The Dodgers certainly have plenty of motivation here. They’re only one game back in the division race and need wins like this. Rockies starter German Marquez has inflated his record and stats against some bad teams recently, but I see that coming apart against a Dodgers lineup that has hit him well. Los Angeles won 9 of 10m and I see the surge continuing here as they win and close this parlay.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners (+125) @ Oakland A’s: 8:40 PM CT on NBC Sports-CA
This line strikes me as a serious market misperception of these teams and is ignoring how they’ve fared against each other all season. The Seattle Mariners lead the season series 10-4 after last night’s win, their 7th straight against the Oakland A’s and their 6th win in 7 meetings at the Oakland Coliseum.
That’s some significant dominance by this Mariners team that just keeps winning games in spite of what the stats tell us about them. That dominance can and should continue here with the pitching matchup potentially favoring Seattle. The Mariners have won 6 of 7 road games behind tonight’s starter Chris Flexen, including at Oakland, and the A’s are only batting .234 with a .565 OPS against him. And while the Mariners are terrible against left-handed pitching like A’s starter Cole Irvin, they defy the stats again in being 3-0 against him this season.
I’ve had a hard time trusting this Seattle team all season because of their strange statistical profile. But their dominance against Oakland and a sneaky pitching advantage have me willing to take a shot on this plus-juice return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 391-283 ATS (+90.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
