Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/24

Photo Credit: Scott Taetsch (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Wake Forest/Virginia Over 68.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Both defenses in this game are extremely vulnerable, both offenses are extremely high-powered, and I see that leading to plenty of points here.

Wake Forest’s defense appears good on paper, but their statistics are lying to you. Without the benefit of 6 turnovers last week, they would’ve given up a lot more yardage and points to the first Power-5 offense they’ve seen this season. So Virginia’s offense should have an easy time tonight: they’re 5th in the country in yards per game and 20th in points per game.

Quarterbacks Sam Hartman for Wake and Brennan Armstrong for Virginia can both sling it at an elite level, and Hartman should be able to exploit a Cavaliers defense fresh off having 59 points hung on it. He certainly did in last year’s matchup, with Wake putting up 40 points in a game Armstrong missed due to injury.

Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall is a great offensive coach, and should be plenty motivated to keep the pedal down with last week and last year’s results top of mind. There’s perfect weather in store for this game, and I don’t see the scoring stopping in this shootout.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) UNLV Team Total Under 14 (-110): 9:00 PM on CBS Sports Network

It’s hard to pass up an opportunity to fade this UNLV team, easily one of the worst programs in the country. But I’m concerned Fresno State’s elite offense might struggle in this flat spot, so I’ll target UNLV’s atrocious offense instead.

Fresno has had quite the season already, but coming off a huge win over UCLA and looking ahead to a road game at Hawaii makes me think the Bulldogs won’t quite get up for this game. Fortunately their opponent will get in their own way enough here that it won’t matter. The only time the Runnin’ Rebels got over this team total was against an FCS opponent to open the season, and it was still a close call. They’re 123rd in scoring and 127th in yards per game on the season, and that’s with having a pretty stellar record of taking care of the football – they have only 3 turnovers this year.

While Fresno’s defense is not elite by any stretch, they have only allowed 10 total points to the other two cupcakes they faced this season. Against an offense this anemic, the Bulldogs should use the opportunity to fix some defensive lapses from last game. The married side and total is forcing this number to where it has natural value, so I’ll play this under since I don’t see UNLV visiting the end zone at all.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 392-284 ATS (+91.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Scott Taetsch (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks NCAA Football (1 Unit) Coastal Carolina -5 @ Appalachian State (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2 I still don’t think Coastal Carolina is getting the credit […]

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