Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/25

Photo credit: Bryon Houlgrave (The Des Moines Register)
Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Colorado State Team Total Under 10.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

This Iowa defense is really something, and they should easily stifle another inferior opponent in this game.

The Hawkeyes are allowing an average of 10 points per game this season and now face their weakest opponent on the entire schedule. Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play, especially with a maniacal crowd hyped up about their highly-ranked Hawkeyes. It’s even tougher considering Iowa has allowed an average of 9.4 PPG in their past 5 home contests, which has come against much better competition than Colorado State. The Rams have only managed 22 PPG on the season – good for 106th nationally – and it’s come against a truly weak schedule including an FCS opponent and perennial doormat Vanderbilt.

The No. 4 scoring defense in the country should have a field day here as they prepare for the tough part of their schedule. I’ll be amazed if Colorado State gets any points in this game, so I love this under against such an elite defense.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) North Texas/LA Tech Over 64.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on STADIUM

Yards, yards, yards, and more yards is what will define this game. And when you combine two teams who get the ball moved on them as these two do, the scoring won’t let up.

Louisiana Tech this season is 129th in yards allowed while North Texas is 113th, a rare matchup between teams so bad at slowing down their opponent. Both teams have also been letting their opponents convert those yards into points. LA Tech is allowing 38.7 PPG and let SE Louisiana score 42 on them, while North Texas gives up 29.7 PPG and had slow-paced UAB drop 40 on them.

Fortunately for over bettors, these offenses can also rack up the yards and points, so they should score at will on a day when defenses will be a no-show. This matchup has gone over this total the past two seasons, and I see another high-scoring affair here so take the over.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Navy @ Houston -19 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

You’re getting a discount on this line because of uncertainty at quarterback for Houston, but I don’t think it matters against this truly awful Navy team.

Houston QB Clayton Tune is dealing with a hamstring injury and may not be able to go in this game. But backup Ike Ogbogu was efficient in relief last week, and with Navy on the other sideline I don’t have a lot of concern about a second-string QB playing. That’s because the Midshipmen have the fewest points in FBS this season, are 126th in yards per game, have a minus-31 average scoring margin, and have compiled those numbers against two teams with bad defenses. I just don’t see them being able to score enough points to keep up with anyone, especially not a Houston team that’s not afraid to stomp inferior teams.

This line is inside of key numbers for that range, and would only rocket up on good news about Tune’s status. I’m grabbing it here and trusting that the futility of this Navy program will earn them another lopsided loss.

NCAA Football (2 Unit) Western Kentucky Team Total Over 26.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network

This is my favorite game of the day and I’m excited to watch this Western Kentucky team on national TV. The Hilltoppers are running one of the most high-octane offenses in the country and should light up the scoreboard here.

Quarterback Bailey Zappe is a name to learn as he transferred in from Houston Baptist, bringing along three wide receivers and his offensive coordinator. The Air Raid offense they bring in dropped 30 or more points on all three of their FBS opponents last season, and through two games has WKU 3rd nationally in scoring, 12th in yards, and 1st in passing yards. The Indiana defense they’ll face just surrendered 31 points to a Cincinnati team that struggled on offense for most of the game.

Western Kentucky should pick the Hoosiers apart since they’ve had a week off to prepare and simply don’t let off the gas. No matter the outcome of the game I see the Hilltoppers cruising past this total.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Indiana/Western Kentucky Over 63

The trade-off with having such an elite offense is that Western Kentucky struggles to stop anyone. They allowed 38 points to an Army team that only runs the ball and 21 points to FCS UT-Martin. Indiana should get whatever they want on the ground behind quarterback Michael Penix Jr.and running back Stephen Carr, and are well-equipped to play in the shootout style that WKU will dictate. This should be a back-and-forth game, and in perfect weather conditions, I see it flying over the total.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit Each): Western Kentucky +9.5 (-110) & Moneyline (+275)

It’s simple really: with their offense and pace, Western Kentucky is always capable of pulling a back-door cover at a minimum. They did it against Army two weeks ago, rallying from 21 down to get inside the number. As I mentioned though, the Hilltoppers had a week off to prepare while Indiana is in a flat spot after choking away their game against Cincinnati. I would not be surprised at all to see WKU come out strong and hold a lead for a significant portion of this game. I love how the spot sets up, so I’ll split a unit by taking the 9.5 points with WKU as well as the +275 moneyline.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 382-286 ATS (+89.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo credit: Bryon Houlgrave (The Des Moines Register)

Locks NCAA Football (1 Unit) Coastal Carolina -5 @ Appalachian State (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2 I still don’t think Coastal Carolina is getting the credit […]

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