Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Tampa Bay Rays Over 9 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Both starting pitchers in this game have been having a rough go of it lately, and I think those struggles lead to plenty of runs tonight.
A lot of the handlebar mustache magic has worn off for Minnesota Twins starter Randy Dobnak, who posted a 9.64 ERA in his five appearances before going on the injured list. Dobnak gets crushed by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .342 average and 1.021 OPS, and the Tampa Bay Rays have lefty bats for days to stack against him. The Rays have scored the 2nd-most runs in baseball against right-handed pitching, and that should continue tonight against Dobnak and the September call-up relievers.
Tampa sends its own troubled starter to the mound in Michael Wacha though, owner of an 8.49 ERA last month, which included a game where Minnesota tagged him for seven runs. So if the Twins can continue to find success against Wacha in combination with their own pitching woes, we’re looking at an easy over here on a fairly low total.
MLB (1 Unit) Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 9:10 PM on Bally Sports San Diego
So the San Diego Padres, sitting half a game back in the wild card race, are sending Jake Arrieta to the mound against the Houston Astros? That’s a bold strategy Cotton, but I don’t think it pays off for them.
Sadly, nobody seems to have the heart to tell Arrieta that it’s just over for him, as he has posted a 13.76 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in his last 5 appearances. Those astronomical numbers are not likely to improve against a Houston team that’s 1st in average and 3rd in OPS against right-handed pitching this season. After being somewhat stifled this week against the Seattle Mariners, the Astros are due for a bounce-back, and Arrieta presents the perfect opportunity.
It can be tough to score runs in San Diego at times, but with how bad Arrieta is right now, the Astros might get to this number in the first couple of innings. A relatively lower full game total is holding this isolated number down a little, so I love the natural value and the matchup here.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Old Dominion @ Wake Forest -31.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
This is a massive number, but a lot of sharp money has been hitting Wake Forest, and I agree with it.
Like a lot of programs, Wake had a strange and rocky 2020 season, but there were plenty of encouraging signs. Most notable is an offense with a ton of explosive potential, led by QB Sam Hartman, who engineered four 40-point performances last season including an epic game at North Carolina. He still has big-play receivers Donavon Greene and Jaquarii Roberson to target, plus dangerous running back Christian Beal-Smith. This is an offense that can easily justify a big spread like the one tonight, especially against an outmatched Old Dominion team.
The Monarchs were one of the three teams to fully cancel their 2020 season. Add in that they’re an absurdly young team and coach Ricky Rahne has yet to coach a D1 game, and the experience level alone puts ODU at a huge disadvantage. That’s what sharp bettors are recognizing, and with the number here still well inside the 5-touchdown margin, I’m on board with this becoming a blowout.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 367-266 ATS (+83 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
