Vikings Twitter is a unique place. Those of us embedded in it can see all the factions that have formed over time: the optimists and the pessimists, the Kirk Cousins doubters and the Kirk believers. While we have different opinions on almost everything, we all come together when it is time to defend our golden boy, Justin Jefferson, from outside criticism.
Since around the start of last season, Vikings Twitter and Chargers Twitter have been locked in one of the most random rivalries of all time, centering around the Rookie of the Year competition between Jefferson and Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert.
Even though Herbert won the award, there have been multiple spin-off arguments from the two fanbases: debates over whether Cousins or Herbert is a better quarterback, which team will have a better record next year, or who really deserved ROY.
All of these disputes seem relatively small when compared to the one last weekend. A Chargers fan page said that Keenan Allen was better than Jefferson, and both the official Vikings and Chargers Twitter accounts responded.
While both men are incredibly talented wideouts, I would have to agree that, even though he only has one year of experience in the league, Jefferson is already a better WR than Allen. While some might call me delusional or say that I am wearing purple-tinted glasses, the numbers back up my claim.
Last season Allen played in only 14 games, finishing with 100 catches for 992 yards with eight touchdowns while earning a Pro-Bowl nod. Conversely, as a rookie last year, Jefferson started 14 games and had 88 receptions for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns, making the Pro Bowl and was named second-team All-Pro.
Jefferson had superior numbers and made an All-Pro team in his rookie season; something Allen has yet to accomplish in his eight years in the league. Not only that, but Allen had much more opportunity to shine than Jefferson had. Jefferson stepped into a run-first offense while Allen was operating in a passing offense whose primary ball carrier, Austin Ekeler, missed six games with injuries.
This opportunity can be measured in the discrepancy between the targets each player averaged this season. Allen averaged the second-most targets of any pass-catcher per game with 10.5; Jefferson didn’t even crack the top 20 with 7.8. Despite Jefferson technically playing more games, Allen still was targeted 22 more times.
So, what’s the argument for Allen? Chargers fans will boast that he was better than Jefferson in his best season and that he has been in the NFL longer. Both are difficult arguments to sell to a neutral observer. The concept of a player proving more year after year should have nothing to do with their current ranking. Otherwise, you would stipulate that Larry Fitzgerald is still a top-end wide receiver because he has nine seasons with over 1,000 yards.
As for the claim that Allen’s best season is better than Jefferson’s only season, that is simply not true. Allen had a career year in 2017, catching 102 balls on 159 targets for 1,393 yards and six scores, giving him 13.7 yards per catch and a catch percentage of 64.2. But Jefferson had seven more yards on 24 fewer catches and 34 fewer targets last year, giving him both a higher catch percentage (70.4) and more yards per catch (15.9).
According to Next Gen Stats, even with Jefferson’s superior numbers after just one season of play, Chargers fans will point to Allen being a better route runner. While that’s notable, and I’m not downplaying his accomplishment, Allen was primarily running routes that are much shorter than Jefferson’s. He was averaging 6.7 yards per target compared to Jefferson’s 11.2. Although he is not the most accurate route runner in the league, according to Next Gen Stats, Jefferson was still able to average more separation than Allen with 1.8 yards of separation per target, while Allen only had 1.2.
Finally, I would like to bring to your attention another Next Gen Stats metric: yards over expected. Jefferson paced the league with plus-487 yards over his expectation. This means that, given his snaps played and amount of catches and targets, Next Gen Stats thinks an average player in his spot wouldn’t have even eclipsed 1,000 yards.
Not only has Jefferson beat Allen’s best season in his first year by virtually every metric, but he also has the advantage of creating better separation, measured by yards per target and yards per catch, while being on a run-first offense where he gets significantly fewer targets.
