After Tom Brady won a Super Bowl in his first season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the NFL off-season has been all about quarterbacks on the move. ESPN’s Adam Schefter predicted that as many as 18 teams could have new starting quarterbacks in 2021, which has led to rampant speculation throughout the league.
Kirk Cousins may have had a career year last season, but the Minnesota Vikings are still seen as a team that could make a change. Fans have taken to social media to promote their mega deals to get a new quarterback even though Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer have both said, “Kirk’s our guy.”
Spielman has verbally committed to players before, only to trade them, but maybe fans are speculating about the wrong trade. Instead of moving Cousins, the Vikings could be working on a trade for Danielle Hunter.
Hunter would otherwise be a key part of the Vikings’ defense in 2021. He’s the fastest player in NFL history to collect 50 sacks, and Zimmer will be waiting at the front entrance of TCO Performance Center with open arms when Hunter returns to the field.
However, Hunter’s return to Minnesota isn’t as certain as you may think. Rumors surfaced during the season that Hunter wants to become the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL. This makes sense considering some of the deals that have been reached across the league in recent seasons.
While Hunter is playing out the five-year, $72 million contract he signed in 2018, he has seen Joey Bosa get a five-year, $138 million deal. Frank Clark (five years, $104 million) and Demarcus Lawrence (five years, $105 million) have also cashed in, putting Hunter well below the pay scale.
While there are teams with the cap space to make that happen, the Vikings aren’t one of them.
The Vikings are $2.05 million over the salary cap after releasing Kyle Rudolph. While a contract extension would create room by reducing Hunter’s 2021 cap number, it could create cap issues down the road.
At this time last year, Cousins signed a two-year extension that seemed to benefit the team. Although his 2020 cap number went down by $10 million, his 2022 cap hit jumps to $45 million. With this number guaranteed if he’s on the roster in a couple of weeks, the Vikings are forced to work out an extension with Cousins next year.
But does Hunter have the leverage to make the Vikings meet his demands? Hunter has three years remaining on the five-year, $72 million contract he signed in 2018. While he is underpaid, the Vikings don’t have to do anything. Hunter’s only move is to hold out.
The Vikings have been proactive recently with other players in Hunter’s position.
Adam Thielen outplayed a three-year, $27 million extension signed in 2017. Once he proved he was one of the best receivers in the league, the Vikings tore the extension up and gave him a four-year, $64 million deal in 2019.
Rudolph was entering the final season of a five-year, $36.5 million deal in 2019 when the Vikings had just drafted Irv Smith Jr. It appeared that Rudolph was on the way out, but Minnesota signed him to a four-year, $36 million extension.
Running back extensions rarely pan out, and when Dalvin Cook entered the final year of his rookie deal last season the Vikings had Alexander Mattison behind him. But Cook received five years and $63 million on the eve of the regular season.
Hunter watched as the Vikings handed Anthony Barr a five-year, $67.5 million contract prior to the 2019 season, and Barr has one sack and missed the final 14 games of the 2020 season since signing it.
Given how the Vikings have handled these negotiations, it makes sense that Hunter would ask for a new deal. A refusal to treat him the same way could be reason enough to seek a trade.
If Hunter really is upset, why would Spielman praise him at his “combine” press conference? As one of the NFL’s best poker players, Spielman needed to bluff to maintain Hunter’s value.
When asked about Hunter, Spielman did not discuss the financial aspect of his situation. He talked about how great Hunter looked in rehab. He also mentioned that the Vikings couldn’t wait to have him back in 2021.
These comments are something you would want to hear if you were considering a trade. If Spielman came out and said, “We don’t know what we’re going to get from Danielle,” a potential offer would be significantly lower.
Spielman also said he hadn’t heard anything in regards to the report that Hunter wanted top defensive player money. If you were a team looking to acquire Hunter, would you do so knowing you would have to give him a massive contract on top of the trade? Or would you bake this into the cost of your offer?
The Chicago Bears learned this when they traded for Khalil Mack. The addition of Mack transformed their defense but also hamstrung their cap situation. With a six-year, $141 million albatross hanging over their heads, the Bears are stuck with a mediocre offense and no money to fix it.
If Hunter’s value remains stable, the Vikings could get a larger haul for a 27-year-old edge rusher than a 32-year-old quarterback who they hope is Rich Gannon 2.0. With an array of draft picks, Spielman could go to work reshaping a roster that has holes at WR3, edge rusher, defensive tackle, cornerback, safety, and, oh yeah, guard.
That process could be much harder if the Vikings are forced to scrape the bargain bin in free agency and rely on more rookies to be NFL-ready in 2021.
So while it’s more fun to put Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson in purple, it might not be the most realistic scenario. While it was unfathomable this time one year ago, the more worthy speculation is around Hunter’s status and whether the Vikings will pull the trigger.
