Twins

Are Buxton and Berríos As Good As Gone Next Year?

Photo Credit: Marilyn Indahl (USA TODAY Sports)

With the hours ticking away until the MLB trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins are in a place that no mid-market franchise wants to be in. Byron Buxton and José Berríos have turned down offers for contract extensions. With both players set to hit free agency after the 2022 season, the Twins are faced with the options of working out an 11th-hour deal or maximizing their value by trading them.

The latter option is intriguing for a team that expects to rebound in 2022. With Buxton and Berríos in the fold, the Twins could try to fill their holes and make another run, but it would be dangerous to gamble on both players down to the wire. Thus, it makes more sense to trade one and not the other.

If the Twins had to choose, they should focus their efforts on Buxton.

Buxton’s contract negotiations are unique in Twins history. The 27-year-old can do incredible things on the field when he’s healthy, and Minnesota is 99-52 when he plays over the past five seasons. The problem is that Buxton has missed nearly two-thirds of the games over that timeframe, and the Twins have baked that into their extension offer.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic, Minnesota’s first offer was seven years and $73 million with incentives. When Buxton’s camp declined, the Twins bumped that offer up to $80 million, but he also balked at that price.

With Buxton’s injury history, it would make sense that the Twins are skittish about committing too much money to him. But Buxton probably wouldn’t be keen on signing a short-term deal that could kill his own value.

It’s a different story with Berríos. The right-hander has worked his way through the Twins’ system and has become their de facto ace. Stuck in the middle of a career-best season, Berríos would fetch a massive return on the trade market, but the Twins seem hell-bent on trying to find a way to work out a deal. The issue is that Berríos has no interest in signing a deal so close to free agency.

“I will have been waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value,” Berríos recently told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. “So it’s different now. We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be.”

The argument could be made that Berrios is more valuable than Buxton due to the position he plays. Berrios is the top pitcher in an organization that doesn’t have many MLB-ready prospects. If the Twins can’t work out an agreement, they have a wide-open rotation because Kenta Maeda may be the lone holdover from this season.

In a perfect world, the Twins would sign both players. But based on the information we have, it seems like Buxton is not only the player more likely to re-sign but the one that the Twins should be focusing on.

The Twins need to ask themselves which player belongs on a championship team. If Buxton is healthy, his ability as a game-changing center fielder can take the Twins from the bottom of the division standings into legitimate World Series contenders.

That’s not to say that Berríos wouldn’t have a role on a championship team, but he’s not worth the No. 1-starter money he’s seeking. While his stats look great, there are flaws in Berríos’ game that surface at the worst moments, like giving up a run once being handed a lead or generating one swinging strike during a playoff game.

There’s also the chance that Berríos could generate a bigger return than Buxton could. While Berríos is a good pitcher, the Twins could turn him into two or three good pitchers in a trade, which could partly reload the roster and help them make another run as soon as 2023. Buxton may not generate the same value due to his injury and the fact the Twins have already tipped their hand at what they perceive his value to be.

If the Twins want to rectify the situation, it’s by ensuring a unique talent stays in Minnesota and acknowledging which players may be replaceable.

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