The Minnesota Twins still had to fill out the back end of their rotation as they entered the final weeks of the offseason. Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill were likely to depart in free agency, and they couldn’t rely on some of their top prospects who may have been ready if there had been a minor league season last year.
The Twins responded by signing J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker to one-year deals. Both have become free-agent busts. Happ has gone 3-3 with a 6.09 ERA in 13 starts while Shoemaker (3-8, 7.31 ERA) has been demoted to the bullpen.
Although the Twins were never going to go with a youth movement at the back of the rotation, it’s interesting to see how some of their free-agent targets have turned out.
Trevor Bauer (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Contract: Three years, $102 million (can opt out after 2021 or 2022 season)
2021 Stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
The odds of the Twins signing Bauer were slim, but after working with Derek Falvey of the Cleveland Indians, there at least was a chance it could happen. If the front office wanted to pursue a championship, this would have been a step in the right direction.
The Twins believed they had solidified the top of the rotation with Kenta Maeda and José Berríos, but both pitchers are best suited as No. 2 starters. By acquiring Bauer, they could have had a true ace who is currently leading the National League with 119 strikeouts.
Of course, money is always an issue with the Twins, but the deal is constructed in a way that Bauer will almost certainly test the market next season. With the contract turning into a one-year, $33 million deal, the risk of signing a veteran starter to a long-term deal doesn’t apply here and the Twins could have had a mercenary at the top of their starting rotation.
Corey Kluber (New York Yankees)
Contract: One year, $12 million
2021 Stats: 4-3, 3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Kluber was one of the most realistic targets for the Twins. The right-hander is a two-time Cy Young Award winner, a three-time All-Star, and has an ERA title to his resume, but at 34 he’s had trouble staying on the field. According to KSTP’s Darren Wolfson, the Twins made Kluber an offer, but he ultimately decided to sign with the Yankees because his personal doctor is on the staff.
That should have been a red flag even after Kluber threw a no-hitter against the Texas Rangers in early May. On May 25, Kluber left a start with a shoulder injury and hasn’t pitched since. Still, Kluber’s contract was the same amount the Twins paid for Happ and Shoemaker and they’ve taken worse gambles over the past three seasons.
Rich Hill (Tampa Bay Rays)
Contract: One year, $2.5 million
2021 Stats: 5-2, 3.64 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
The Twins tried the Hill experiment last season when they signed him to an incentive-laden deal. Hill was originally expected to be out until July but was able to pitch the entire year due to the pandemic. Minnesota hoped that after rehabbing with the team, he could be a secret weapon in the postseason. That didn’t materialize and the opportunistic Rays scooped him up last winter.
Since then, Hill has been the pitcher the Twins wanted him to be. Hill ranks second among Tampa’s starters in ERA and his 71.2 innings pitched is third on the staff. While the 41-year-old looks like he could burst into flames at any moment, it might have been worth a full-year gamble to bring him back.
Jake Odorizzi (Houston Astros)
Contract: Three years, $39 million (third-year player option)
2021 Stats: 2-3, 4.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Before the Twins signed Happ and Shoemaker, I asked why they didn’t just bring back Odorizzi. His injury-plagued 2020 was a concern, but the Twins knew what they had and could use him to fill a hole in the middle of the rotation.
The deal worked out for both sides as Odorizzi got his long-term deal after an injury-plagued 2020 and the Twins dodged a bullet when the bottom dropped out this year. Odorizzi currently has the highest full-season ERA since his 2018 season in Minnesota and has pitched just 30.1 innings for the Astros this season. While Odorizzi returned to the Astros’ rotation on Monday, another arm injury clouds his outlook and relieves the Twins of another headache.
James Paxton (Seattle Mariners)
Contract: One year, $8.5 million
2021 Stats: 0-0, 6.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP (1.1 IP)
A popular alternative to Odorizzi was to sign Paxton to a one-year deal with incentives. While the Twins could have made a move, the British Colombia native decided to return to Seattle, where he started his career. The deal, which $1.5 million in incentives, was reasonable but also carried significant risk due to Paxton’s injury history.
That became a problem for the Mariners when Paxton felt discomfort in his elbow during his first start of the season. He went on the injured list and needed Tommy John surgery, wiping out his entire 2021 season. If there’s one thing Twins fans hate more than free-agent busts, it’s injury-prone players. By not signing Paxton, the Twins dodged a major bullet.
Carlos Rodón (Chicago White Sox)
Contract: One year, $3 million
2021 Stats: 6-2, 1.83 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
When the Twins signed Shoemaker, they spent $2 million for a pitcher with a lengthy injury history. For an extra million, Minnesota could have gotten one of the best feel-good stories of the season in Rodón.
Rodòn’s career was on the ropes after multiple elbow and shoulder injuries and the Chicago White Sox let the left-hander test free agency last winter. After returning to the White Sox on a prove-it deal, Rodón is producing at an All-Star level. At the top of a rotation that is running away with the American League Central, Rodón could have been a better version of Martín Pérez, who enjoyed a fast start with the Twins in 2019.
There are many flaws that have doomed the Twins this season, and their free-agent pitching acquisitions were a significant factor. They may have prudently passed on some pitchers who are struggling, but with the options they had on the market, they could have done better, even on a budget.
