Two weeks ago, news broke that slugger Nelson Cruz was returning to the Minnesota Twins on a one-year, $13 million deal after a staring contest that lasted for months. The move was universally accepted by the fanbase and baseball analysts. Cruz’s impact on the team in his short time here has been impressive. In two seasons, he has smacked 57 home runs, drove in 141 runs, and immediately became the leader of a young team under a first-time manager who was younger than him.
But one of the biggest reasons why Cruz remained a free agent until February was that he will turn 41 this summer and he wanted a two-year deal.
Cruz has been one of the most dominant power hitters over the last 10 years. Since 2013, nobody has hit more home runs in baseball than the man they call Boomstick. It seems like Cruz has been able to evade Father Time so far as he prepares to enter his 17th big-league season, and he’s expected to continue to do so. FanGraphs projects Cruz will hit 35 home runs, a wOBA of .362, and have a WAR of 2.2 next season.
But here’s the thing: Cruz will still be one of the most valuable Twins no matter what his stat line says in 2021.
After the Twins traded Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar in 2018 they were in search of a leader for the clubhouse. They needed the right leader to pair with first-year manager Rocco Baldelli as the team tried to modernize their approach to analytics.
In comes Cruz. He filled a need for the Twins, who were looking to add more power to the lineup and provide solid veteran leadership. Plus, he had postseason experience. There was also the added bonus that Cruz’s personality meshed perfectly with Baldelli’s.
Both have a very laid-back approach to leadership, emphasizing calm and a steady hand over a more in-your-face style. Cruz, who is known for his work ethic, is also a big believer in taking naps before games. Baldelli in 2019 implemented a policy that prevented players from coming to the ballpark too early to emphasize rest and relaxation.
While there have been times when the laid-back approach has been criticized, it also helped a young team manage success and expectations during the grind of a regular season and bring back-to-back AL Central titles to the Twin Cities for the first time in a decade.
Cruz’s leadership affects the whole team, but Miguel Sano probably has been impacted the most by his presence. After 2018, there were plenty of questions about Sano’s work ethic, approach at the plate, and his overall future with the team. But Sano bonded with Cruz in 2019, and the results came almost immediately.
In 2019, Sano had a career-high 34 home runs, a .346 on-base percentage that resembled his All-Star 2017 season, along with reducing his strikeout rate by 6% from 2018. Even with a bit of regression in 2020, the two have become a fun pair to watch in the middle of the lineup.
But can Cruz be both a mentor and an impact hitter in his age-40 season? If the projections bear out, Cruz will continue being a reliable designated hitter for a Twins team looking to win their first playoff game since 2004.
On the other hand, what if his age catches up to him next year?
Major regression is a common theme for athletes who continue their careers into their 40s, unless their name is Tom Brady. There are two options the Twins could pursue if that’s the case. They could cut Cruz during the season and eat the rest of his one-year contract, or they could try and squeeze the last bit of good baseball out of him by getting the most out of his playing time in smaller doses.
The Twins have a lot of talented prospects in their farm system who are ready to make a big-league impact, and Brent Rooker played well after being called up last year. If Cruz’s play declines, he could split playing time with a guy like Rooker. This would allow Cruz to rest and make the most out of his plate appearances and give Rooker or another young player some at-bats in the majors.
The Twins are at a crossroads because the team has been a playoff contender the last couple of seasons and still have a logjam of hitting prospects like Rooker, Alex Kirilloff, and Trevor Larnach on the major-league bubble. Having an experienced veteran like Cruz showing them the ropes would be huge for their development.
In order to get every deserving player at-bats, they could use the DH as more of an open spot in the lineup to give a player a semi rest day rather than using a traditional power hitter.
As Spring Training begins in Fort Myers, there are going to be a lot of questions for the Twins as they look to win three straight division titles for the first time in over 15 years. The question of Cruz’s continued ability to be a productive big-league hitter has to be one of the biggest X-factors.
But when the 2021 season gets underway, the Cruz’s value is almost unquantifiable. The Twins are a better team with Cruz next year, no matter what he does in the batter’s box.
