Winning can mask a lot in sports, and the Green Bay Packers have been doing plenty of winning this year. As a result, some of the issues that are developing have been swept under the rug. At 8-2, Green Bay has a prime opportunity to put a punctuation mark on the NFC North race if they beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. But they need to work out their red-zone woes to do that.
Green Bay ranked No. 1 overall in the NFL last year in terms of red zone touchdown percentage. In 2019, they ranked second overall in the same category. It’s long been something Aaron Rodgers and the offense have excelled at once they reach what they call the “gold zone.”
That hasn’t been the case this year.
Last Sunday, Rodgers threw an interception in the red zone that fell right into Jamal Adams‘ lap. It was shocking to see, given how cautious Rodgers is with the ball in general, but especially with the Packers on the doorstep of the end zone. He threw an interception in the red zone in Week 1 as well. While it’s not all on No. 12’s shoulders, some of his own decisions have been head-scratchers. To better put it into perspective, No. 12 threw for 35 touchdowns in the red zone last year and had zero interceptions.
He’s not the only reason for the struggles, though.
Green Bay ranks 25th in red zone touchdown percentage so far this year. They are behind teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, and even the Chicago Bears in that category. Davante Adams has had even more attention shifted towards him this year when Green Bay gets inside the enemy’s 20-yard line.
Weekly, the focus of the opposing defense has honed in on Adams inside the red zone. As a result, his production has dwindled in the red zone as Rodgers has been forced to look elsewhere. Through ten games this year, Adams has just seven catches for three touchdowns inside their gold zone. It pales in comparison to last year when Adams topped the charts with 14 touchdowns and 23 receptions in that same area of the field.
In October, Rodgers said that they needed to be more aggressive in the red zone via the team website. At the time of his statement, the Packers were converting touchdowns on 55% of their red zone opportunities. The number has dropped a month later to 53%.
“I think we can be more aggressive,” Rodgers said, referring to the red zone plan. “I think that’s the biggest thing.
“More aggressive doesn’t mean throw the ball more. It just means we have a ton of scheme down there, and let’s keep rolling it off the sheet.”
At the time of Rodgers’ comments, head coach Matt LaFleur seemed not to be worried about what the numbers said.
“Stats are for losers, sorry. You guys can have a heyday with that. All I care about is wins and losses,” said LaFleur.
“We set a standard a year ago of what it should look like, and we haven’t lived up to that standard. I got to do a better job of getting our guys plays that can be successful.”
The standard has taken a dip this year, although there’s time to figure it out.
Green Bay indeed converted at an absurd clip last year (77%), but it didn’t set any records. This year, the San Francisco 49ers lead the race in touchdown efficiency in the red zone at 79%.
So, what’s the solution?
One possible answer rests on the shoulders of A.J. Dillon.
With all the attention paid to Adams on the outside and in the slot, it could open up plenty of avenues in the ground game. Remember that Robert Tonyan, a significant red-zone threat for the Packers last year, is out for the season. His absence could have LaFleur leaning even more towards the ground game in the gold zone.
When they got into the red zone on Green Bay’s first scoring drive against the Seattle Seahawks, they went: pass, pass, run (designed pass run by Rodgers), run, pass, pass, field goal.
On their first touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, they leveled things out, going: run, pass, run, pass, run, run (touchdown). The second touchdown drive to put the icing on the cake was even more run-heavy. They went: run, run, pass, run, run, run, run (touchdown).
I’m not saying that running the ball inside the 20-yard line will solve all of Green Bay’s issues. It could serve as part of the grand solution, though. Nobody will complain about giving the ball to a man who’s 6’0″, 250 lbs when they reach that end of the field.
Green Bay’s red zone woes have carried into the middle of November, yet it hasn’t been brought up because they are winning. The defense has helped carry a lot of the weight. But if the offense can push the right buttons once they get deep into enemy territory, it will go a long way toward this team becoming Super Bowl-ready.
