Let’s play a game, shall we?
There are 10 statistics that I would consider to be the bedrock of a box score. Within these 10 stats, you’ll often be able to formulate a pretty good idea of exactly how a player contributes to their team, how tall they are, as well as their offensive roles. None of them are perfect because no statistic is, but combined, these 10 can tell a large part of the story of a player:
To divide them up into groups, first, you have the shooting efficiencies:
1. Field-goal percentage (FG%)
2. 3-point field goal percentage (3P%)
3. Free throw percentage (FT%)
Then, you gave the role-dependent contributions:
4. Total Rebounds (REB)
5. Assists (AST)
Yes, I understand that guards can grab rebounds, and bigs can throw passes. Still, for the vast majority of players on the vast majority of teams, the coach has the final say on how many passing turnovers he’ll stomach for the center and how many rebounds vultured he’ll allow a perimeter player to take.
After those, you have the “that’s it?” defensive stats:
6. Steals (STL)
7. Blocked shots (BLK)
Then, the subtractions:
8. Turnovers (TOV)
9. Personal fouls (PF)
And finally, the Herm Edwards Special:
10. Points scored (PTS).
I call it that, because as Herm so eloquently, yet forcefully, stated in 2002, “You play to win the game.” Points are likely among the most flawed individual statistics in all of basketball (because their actual impact is highly correlated with the shots’ efficiency and the number of turnovers committed while chasing the point). Still, the fact remains: You need to score more than the other guys to win.
Okay, on to the game:
The Minnesota Timberwolves have two young players that have been acquired, treated and now utilized in almost completely different ways. When plotting out their paths to the NBA, you can even start to see the divergence as it happened. Both of these players were McDonald’s All-Americans. Still, after Jarred Vanderbilt fought through an injury-marred season at Kentucky, he was taken with the 41st pick, and his NBA trajectory has proceeded accordingly. On the other hand, Anthony Edwards was the top selection in his draft class, obviously, and the early returns of his rookie season include the perks and accommodations that come with being the top selection. When comparing who scores best among those 10 statistical categories when normalized to per 36 minutes rates, the player who is leading the way might surprise you:
…Woof
Some of these are pretty obvious, I’ll admit. Of course, Vanderbilt will get more rebounds and blocks, and likewise, Edwards will score more points considering his Usage Rate is almost double Vanderbilt’s. One of these statistics isn’t really much of a conversation, as Vanderbilt has only taken one three-pointer this season, which he obviously made.
However, I should point out that while comparing these two players in three-point percentage is not exactly an accurate representation of their shooting abilities, Edwards’ 34% from three is below the league average mark. So, compare any shooter in the league to Edwards, and… well, I suspect you see where I’m going with this.
Some of these metrics are just indefensible, though. How does Vanderbilt have both more assists per 36 minutes AND fewer turnovers? How! Not to bury the lede, because how does Jarred Vanderbilt, an undersized power forward who can’t shoot from the outside with a Usage Rate of 15%, have more assists than Edwards?? Edwards has been tracked as the ball-handler in literally 145 pick-and-roll possessions on Synergy this year. Vanderbilt has been tracked as the ball-handler in, wait for it, one possession.
And that single, solitary pick-and-roll ball-handler possession for Vanderbilt wasn’t even supposed to be a pick-and-roll! Jordan McLaughlin swung the ball over to Vanderbilt, then cut through, and Vanderbilt was aware enough to realize that he could run his man into the cut, then hit Naz Reid after drawing Steven Adams in help for an open corner three.
Meanwhile, Edwards has turned his 145 possessions in pick-and-roll into exactly 97 points.
If that sounds bad, it’s because it is. The distance in efficiency between him at 52nd (out of 52 players with at least 145 possessions) and 51st is greater than the distance between 51st and 31st.
And that’s because, if you haven’t been paying attention (or reading ye ol’ quartermaster Spencer!), Edwards plays basketball like there are no stakes.
Vanderbilt plays basketball like it’s his job, and lay-offs could happen at any time.
And, based on the way that Ryan Saunders is playing those two, they’re both right.
Edwards has gotten a promotion to the starting lineup and hasn’t changed a thing since he walked on campus at Georgia. Vanderbilt has scratched and clawed his way into a valued member of the rotation, but there is simply no job security as the eighth man on the second-worst team in the NBA.
So, next time you see that Vanderbilt, all 6’9” of him, is jumping through the roof, trying to corral an improbable rebound from another Edwards clank, or Vanderbilt is pivoting and spinning like a mad man amongst the trees of the defense, working for the angle to the rim that isn’t guaranteed to be there, think about how much better Edwards would be playing if he had the same perspective.
Tomorrow wasn’t promised for Vanderbilt. The player we are seeing, the guy who is chasing rebounds like any stint on the floor could be his last and refuses to take anything but the best shots, well, he wasn’t always here.
Watching his tape from the G-League the last two seasons, the athleticism was always there (as was the undersized stature), but this effort, at least this level of it, is brand new.
Through it almost happening to him, Vanderbilt had to learn that tomorrow isn’t promised to anybody.
