Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/24

Photo Credit: David Dermer (USA TODAY Sports)
 Locks

MLB Tampa Bay Rays/Cleveland Indians Over 10 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on FS1

It looks like adding Nelson Cruz is already paying dividends for the Tampa Bay Rays offense, and I expect them to keep mashing tonight. That’s because they’re facing Cleveland Indians (Guardians?) starter J.C. Mejia who’s not having a good summer with a 9.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his last five starts. Included in that stretch is a game against the Rays where he didn’t get out of the third inning before surrendering six runs. The matchup really favors Tampa’s large complement of left-handed bats as Mejia has a truly awful .316 average and .962 OPS against him by lefties. It’s looking like another opener/bullpen game from the Rays making it tough to gauge how Cleveland’s bats will fare. But it’s important to note that the Indians (Guardians?) are the fourth-best team to the over in baseball, sharp money has already hit this total to drive it up, plus there’s a strong wind blowing out to right for this game. With Tampa putting up this many runs by themselves last night, I’ll count on another strong showing from their bats and enough help from Cleveland to get over this number.

Bonus Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100):

The Rays really have Cleveland’s number so far this season, 5-0 in the season series with a plus-18 run differential and three wins by two-plus runs. Given the matchup of their offense against Mejia this one could turn lopsided as well, so at even money I’ll take a shot on the run line and look for a comfortable Tampa win in a high-scoring game.

Degenerates

Olympic Men’s Basketball Nigeria vs Australia -7.5 (-110): 3:20 AM CT Sunday on NBC

If anyone is up at odd hours looking for betting action *sheepishly raises hand* this is the game for you. Team Nigeria comes into Tokyo overvalued in my opinion, off an excellent showing in exhibition games where they knocked off Team USA and a well-respected Argentina squad. Yes, they have plenty of recognizable names on the roster and an experienced head coach, but did nobody see what Team Australia did to them in the Las Vegas exhibition matchup? The Boomers beat them up like a boxing kangaroo, running away 108-69 while prominent NBA names Joe Ingles, Patty Mills, and Aron Baynes all sat out. Those stars are expected to play in this one, and an Aussie team that’s a top contender for the gold medal should have another easy time here. You might need to adjust your sleep schedule to see this one live, but this line seems far too short for a team that’s only going to continue to get better so I’ll lay the points.

Olympic Men’s Waterpolo Italy vs South Africa +18.5 (-110): 8:00 PM on NBC

If you thought the US men’s soccer team in the Concacaf Gold Cup was a degenerate bet, hold my beer. You might need to dig deep to find a book that offers this bet, but I’m told it’s a good one. Italy is expected to contend for a medal in water polo during these Olympics, but from what I understand this is a lot of goals to be laying even if South Africa isn’t a medal contender themselves. The comparison here is that this many goals is about the equivalent of a football game being a 50 point blowout. While those games are certainly known to happen, I’ll hope that this match doesn’t get too far out of hand and the Italian bench sees plenty of action to allow South Africa inside the number

Tiny Nick is 331-233 ATS (+83 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: David Dermer (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN I’m not understanding why the Clippers are favored […]

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