We’re coming off another winning week, now 7-2 to start the season, as we roll into Week 4. As usual, there are a few live dogs this week. The Jags and Seahawks just missed the cut for me. Here are my three favorites:
Texans +5 ½ vs. Chargers
This is my favorite play of the week. Why are the Chargers still getting so much love? Justin Herbert is a shadow of his usual brilliant self right now, as he plays through busted ribs. Now he’ll have to play without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater (torn pec), his best receiver, Keenan Allen, is still out and the defense has lost pass rushing star Joey Bosa. Meanwhile Lovie Smith has the Texans competing every week and rookie Dameon Pierce should feast against a run defense that is struggling. The Chargers may do enough to get the win, but it won’t be easy.
Ravens +3 vs. Bills
The public loves the Bills here, since they’re coming off a tough loss in Miami where they dominated in almost all facets. But their offense was on the field for over 90 plays on a steamy field and may not be up for another 60-minute dogfight. Plus, their defense is still missing some key guys in the secondary. Meanwhile, the Ravens are lights out as home dogs—Lamar Jackson is 5-0 in that spot and is playing like a guy fighting to earn a Deshaun Watson-type contract. The Bills will fall to 2-2, but the sky is not falling on the AFC favorites.
Titans +3 ½ at Colts
This is a series the Titans have dominated in recent years and the road team has won six of the last seven. Mike Vrabel is 18-7 as an underdog and has won 17 of those games outright, so you may as well get paid on the money line here. The Colts’ season was on the line last week, and we were on them against the Chiefs. They fall back to earth this week and once again look like a team spinning its wheels.
Last Week 2-1
Season 7-2
