Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 1/21

Photo Credit: Nick Monroe (Handout Photo-USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NBA (0.25 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks -9 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

This number has been roaring towards Milwaukee since it opened, but there’s still some value here on the Bucks given how these teams are headed in opposite directions health-wise.

The Chicago injury situation is bleak and well-chronicled, and it won’t get any better tonight. Meanwhile, the Bucks are almost at full health after welcoming back Jrue Holiday in their last game. When Milwaukee has the trio of Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor together, they have a net scoring margin of plus-11.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s a recipe for a runaway against any team much less the wounded Bulls.

Count me as a believer that the Bucks will want to remind Chicago in a not-so-pleasant fashion who the favorite is in their division, in a national TV spot no less. This could end up getting ugly, so I’ll lay the points here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets/San Antonio Spurs Over 232.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on YES

I’m always looking to bet the over in San Antonio home games since the Spurs are by far the best home over team in the league. While they have a 15-6-1 record to the over at home, they obviously need cooperation from the visitor, and I think they get it from Brooklyn tonight.

No Kevin Durant for the Nets means they have to rely even more on their guards for scoring. Fortunately for Brooklyn they’ll have Kyrie Irving tonight, and he should dominate a Spurs team that allows some of the highest production to point guards in the league. The ability of Irving and James Harden to get to the rim will be on full display against a Spurs team that allows the 4th-most points in the paint.

Both these teams are top-10 in pace, have major defensive liabilities, and have the scoring talent to take advantage. That all shapes up as another over in San Antonio tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Toledo/Ohio Over 147 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I couldn’t believe it when this total opened up all the way down at 144.5, and while the market has corrected it, I still think there’s value in the over here.

The Toledo offense has been living up to its Rocket namesake this season, ranking 31st in scoring and 34th in efficiency. That’s allowed them to bully the relatively weak MAC defenses to the tune of 81.6 PPG in conference play, and they’ll get another one here as Ohio is just 116th in defensive rating. The Bobcats can score though and have been pouring it on lately, upping their point total for 5 straight games and hitting 80-plus in 3 straight.

This is also a battle for first place in the conference and will likely be close down the stretch. With both of these teams being top-20 in free throw shooting, that should help pad the scoring throughout the game and especially late. The previous 3 meetings between these squads have averaged 165.7 points, and I see another high-scoring game tonight.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Michigan St./Wisconsin Over 139 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

A Wisconsin game with a total approaching 140 points? Yes, believe it, because the Badgers have a much better offense this season than you’d assume from this program’s history. The emergence of Johnny Davis has given this team an individual scoring threat that’s rare in Madison.

Combine that with a defense that is down at 147th in defensive rating, and you have the reason why this team has played 7 straight overs and has one of the best records to the over in the country. Add in that Michigan State has gone over tonight’s total in 8 of their past 10 and I like the chances of seeing another unusually high-scoring Big10 game.

Tiny Nick is 529-423 ATS (+75.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Nick Monroe (Handout Photo-USA TODAY Sports)

Locks NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat -1.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN Strangely enough, I kind of like Boston to win this series, […]

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