Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Timberwolves -3 @ Trail Blazers (-110): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Okay Timberwolves, you haven’t treated me well at the betting window this season, but it’s time to turn that around against this shorthanded Portland team.
The Blazers have actually been covering numbers lately, as they’re currently on a 6-2 run both ATS and straight up. But the level of competition in those wins has been less than impressive, and a fully healthy Wolves squad might be the best team they’ve faced in weeks. With Anthony Edwards avoiding the injury report and Patrick Beverley slated to return tonight, Minnesota should have all the pieces necessary to win this one.
Portland is still missing several key contributors beyond just Damian Lillard, and defense continues to be their biggest weakness. A Wolves offense that actually scores 7.8 more points per game on the road should help them pull away here for a comfortable win.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Golden State Warriors Under 211 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
This total is on its way down, and with good reason for how both teams are playing right now. With two teams who are so defensive-oriented, I’m seeing another under from them here.
If you’ve watched any Warriors basketball lately, you’ve seen that something is wrong with this team, and they’ve needed to lean on their top-rated defense. A slow defensive battle suits Dallas just fine, as they’re up to 4th in defensive rating and are playing at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league. They’ve also passed the Warriors for best record to the under on the season, and have gone under this total in 8 of their past 10 games.
Until Steph Curry gets himself out of this slump, the Warriors offense is going to struggle. Golden State has been money to the under at home this season, and in a national TV game, I see their defense coming to play again to keep this one under the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Clemson @ Duke -11.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
The road version of Clemson versus the home version of Duke is a serious mismatch, and I see it leading to another Blue Devil blowout here.
The home and road splits for both these teams are fairly stark, but especially for Clemson. Their once-proud defense is allowing 1.032 points per possession away from home, and now have to go up against the juggernaut that is the Duke offense. The Blue Devils are the 6th-highest scoring team in the country, 5th in efficiency, and have significantly better numbers at Cameron Indoor. They’re also 22nd at defending the three, which is the only thing that’s been keeping Clemson afloat lately.
This number has come down on the news that star Duke guard Trevor Keels won’t play, but the recent emergence of AJ Griffin should help balance out the Duke offense. The Blue Devils beating up on Clemson at home is a tradition, with 20-plus point wins in 5 of the past 7 instances, and should cover this number again tonight.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Colorado @ Oregon -7.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network
Yeah, I think it’s safe to say that Dana Altman has figured it out and Oregon is back.
It’s true that the Buffaloes are a tough out at home, evidenced by their close calls against the highly-ranked L.A. schools last week. But their mediocre offense (which is likely missing Eli Parquet again tonight) takes a big step down when they head on the road, and it’s caused losses by 12 and 21 points when they’ve visited the top teams in the conference. Oregon is certainly playing like a top team in the conference after sweeping an L.A. road trip and returning home to obliterate Washington.
That win by the Ducks on Sunday could easily have been a flat spot for them but it wasn’t, showing me this team is focused and improving. But I see Colorado as the one in a tough situation here after expending so much energy against the L.A. schools, and won’t be able to handle the rising Ducks. The books haven’t been able to price Colorado properly as a dog either, with the Buffs going 1-4 ATS when catching points. Look for that to continue here as Oregon rolls.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Arizona -3 @ UCLA (-110): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN
This is a rare situation where I wouldn’t even need money on a game to stay up late and watch it because this is appointment viewing. But I’ll still be backing Arizona here because it’s impossible to fade this team. The market agrees, with smart money coming in to support the Wildcats at their shortest favorite price in 9 games.
That movement is likely hinting that Azuolas Tubelis will be back in the lineup for Arizona, giving them an even bigger advantage over the Bruins inside. UCLA is also fresh off the elevation road trip here, and that has historically caused issues for PAC12 teams. If their recent cold shooting continues tonight, the Bruins will get run out by the elite Arizona offense, so I’ll lay the short number with one of the best teams in the country.
Tiny Nick is 538-429 ATS (+75.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
