Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 22 Points (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Whenever I try to zig on figuring out which of the Minnesota big three will go off, they all zag, adding to the inherent frustration of decades of Timberwolves basketball. The definition of insanity is doing something over and over while expecting a different result, so, here I am going after a Wolves player prop again. But it’s Anthony Edwards, and the man has been killing it this month. Despite an awful performance from deep last night, he still managed 27 points, and should be due for positive shooting regression here.
D’Angelo Russell looked extremely uncomfortable at times last night after injuring his leg, and is listed as questionable tonight. That should leave more responsibility for perimeter scoring to Edwards here. Also missing from this game will be Phoenix’s best interior defenders in Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee, giving Ant more opportunity to get to the rim. Books are expecting a high-scoring game here, and I’ll count on Edwards to get his share.
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Atlanta Hawks Over 217.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
This is one of the lowest totals you’re going to see when the Atlanta Hawks are involved, so I think there’s value here from that perspective. The Hawks have gone over this total in 7 of their past 10 games, so I’m confident that their elite offense will contribute like they usually do.
Boston is more of a concern, but they showed in their past two games against Washington and Sacramento’s bad defenses that they can take advantage by hanging 116 and 128 points. Atlanta’s 28th-rated defense will offer similarly light resistance, and with the Celtics owning the highest plus/minus to the total as a road dog, I’m seeing an over here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Clippers @ Miami Heat -7 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
I suspect if Jimmy Butler’s name hadn’t popped up on the injury report, tonight’s spread would be considerably higher. That’s in large part due to Miami’s ability to defend home court, owning the 3rd-best home record and 3rd-best home margin of victory. They’re also covering at a 63.6% clip in FTX Arena including 5 of the last 6, and should again tonight.
The Clippers have to be just about running on empty after their impossible comeback on Tuesday in the middle of this long road trip. They’re also on the second leg of the Florida doubleheader, and the “South Beach effect” on teams should not be ignored. I just don’t see how the Clippers keep up with the highly efficient Heat offense here, so I’ll lay the points.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies -5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Rudy Gobert has already been ruled out for this game, while Donovan Mitchell is still questionable and looking like he’ll stay out tonight again. The Jazz have been feisty without them, but focus not on the team name and rather the fact that they’ve kind of quietly lost 9 of their past 11 games. Utah is also 1-6 without Gobert this season, with those losses by an average of 11.6 points. The Jazz brand inflates their value, and this shorthanded version should be in trouble again tonight.
The Grizzlies already took down the healthiest version of the Jazz this season in Utah, and they should be able to again here. No Gobert inside only reinforces the rebounding edge for Memphis, who is 1st in overall rebounding and offensive boards. It also allows a much easier path to the rim for Ja Morant, and those factors will be the difference in a comfortable Memphis win.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 @ Houston Rockets (-110): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet NW
Why am I taking a team that just got run out on their home floor by 20 points? One that has more injuries than I can keep track of? I really don’t know and this could be a very poor choice, but the number is moving towards Portland, so I’ll go with it. Houston had to come back to earth after an impressive road trip, and they did so by getting run out on their home floor by 30 points. So I guess the lesser of two blowouts is your answer?
NBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bulls/San Antonio Spurs Over 230 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
I’m leaning hard into the emotional angle in this game, with DeMar DeRozan returning to San Antonio tonight fresh off being named an All-Star starter. I see him going wild against the lackluster Spurs defense. As an aside, I would recommend the over on his points prop at 25.5 since it’s strangely below his season average of 26.4 PPG. The return of Zach LaVine for the Bulls is also important here as it gives Chicago their best threat to pile up points from long range.
While they’ve faltered lately, San Antonio is still the best home over team in the league. Facing the NBA’s 2nd-best shooting percentage team and leader in 3-point percentage should create another here. If DeRozan does go off in this game as I suspect, that can only help with the over due to the pace it creates for two teams who already play fast.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Wyoming/Air Force Over 127 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on MW Network
Nothing matters in college basketball right now. Not stats, not trends, not records, not injuries, literally nothing. So yeah, let’s take the over in a game involving an Air Force team that has the 12th-best under record in the whole country. Because, remember: nothing like that matters one bit.
Working in our favor though is Wyoming going 17-1 over tonight’s total on the season, and the fact that the past 5 meetings between these schools have averaged 148.2 points. Maybe that doesn’t matter either because, remember: nothing matters. But this Air Force team has been getting some players back and getting into higher-scoring games against functional offenses. That’s what Wyoming brings, so I’ll take the over on this low number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Marist/Quinnipiac Over 138 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+
This is the strangest pick I’ve made in a long time, and it would be inappropriate bordering on illegal to describe my methodology for arriving at it. Quinnipiac has one of the best home under records in the country but, remember: nothing like that matters. Marist has gone over this total just 5 times this season in non-overtime games but, remember: nothing like that matters.
These teams play at slow paces and don’t shoot it particularly well but, remember: nothing like that matters. They’ve only gone over this total once in the past five meetings but, yep, you guessed it. Everything is upside down in college basketball so it’s time to do things that make no freaking sense. Can you feel the frustration? See you at the window to cash Marist/Quinnipiac over tickets.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Ohio/Buffalo Over 150 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU
Now this is a pick that makes all the sense in the world from a logic and numbers standpoint. So, because nothing like that matters, I’ll relegate it to the degenerates section while I test my theory that we’re actually in the upside down from Stranger Things.
Buffalo loves to play fast behind Jeenathan Williams and Ronaldo Segu, pushing it at the 26th-fastest pace in the country. With both offenses scoring above 1.04 points per possession, that fast pace dictated by the home team should get it over this total just like the past 3 meetings have. Of course nothing like that matters in the upside down, so tread carefully.
Tiny Nick is 542-439 ATS (+73.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
