Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/04

Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox (USA TODAY Sports)

MLB (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Over 7.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This time of the year in baseball is strange, that’s true. Patchwork lineups and adverse weather can throw totals handicapping for a loop. But it’s also true that this is the last chance to pick on Lucas Giolito and his awful numbers at home.

That’s worth a shot here on such a low number, despite the Twins lineup having a few obscure names in it. But if those names are batting from the right side, they can take advantage of Giolito’s other awful split this season in allowing a .323 average and .939 OPS to righties.

But the most important stat is Giolito owning a 6.43 ERA in his games on the south side, with a .309 on-base average allowed to boot. He also got tagged for five runs by the Twins in their only visit to Guaranteed Rate Field a month ago. In his past 10 home games, nine have gone over this total, and these teams are 11-6 over this number on the season.

I would also expect Josh Winder to allow a few runs against what’s still a talented White Sox lineup. The winds are very light in Chicago today, so I’m taking advantage of those conditions and Giolito’s struggles to get this over the total today.

MLB (0.25 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+100)

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (-180): 5:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Great Lakes

The Royals stole one on the Guardians last night in extras, and I just don’t see it happening twice in a row. Certainly not with the pitching advantage Cleveland is enjoying in this game. A lot is going on in the sports world, so it’s flown a bit under the radar, but Cleveland has won 15 of the last 16 starts from Cal Quantrill. None of those came against Kansas City, but he is 2-0 against them this season.

The Guardians will be motivated to keep that mojo going for Quantrill heading into the playoffs and should have an easy time at the plate against Daniel Lynch. The Royals lefty was crushed by Cleveland earlier this year, and his awful numbers against left-handed hitters will come into play as the Guardians can stack bats from that side. The Royals are busy making vacation plans, not focusing on a meaningless game for them, so Cleveland should get the easy win here.

Colorado Rockies @ LA Dodgers (-360): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

Speaking of win streaks behind pitchers, the Dodgers continue to be absolutely dominant when Julio Urias takes the mound. The LA lefty will see Cal Quantrill’s streak and raise him a couple, as the Dodgers have now won 17 of his past 18 starts. Even more incredible than the wins has been Urias compiling a 1.04 ERA across August and September. They’re not losing here either, despite having consecutive bad nights at the plate.

Rockies starter Ryan Feltner should be the cure for those hitting ails, as he brings his 6.06 road ERA into Dodger Stadium. Feltner struggles most against right-handed bats, and the Dodgers have no shortage of elite hitters from that side of the plate. I’m pretty confident the Dodgers don’t want to stumble to the finish line by piling up bad losses to Colorado, so look for them to get back on track here and continue the streak for Urias.


No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 878-734 ATS (+79.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox (USA TODAY Sports)

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