Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/05

SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Image credit: USA Today Sports
Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

SMU +8.5 @ UCF

I think it’s interesting that money has been coming in on the road team here, pushing this line inside a field goal. That has me looking to push back with this teased number, which still covers a full possession worth of points. With this game being pushed back twice due to the hurricane, SMU probably has the preparation advantage over UCF, as the Knights have undoubtedly been dealing with Ian’s impact.

There are also a few matchup advantages that are in the Mustangs’ favor here. UCF has not faced anything close to the pro-style passing attack SMU brings behind Tanner Mordecai, so a pass defense that looks good on paper will be exposed today. SMU’s vertical attack also means the Knights won’t be able to stack the box, only worsening a run defense that’s 115th in yards per rush allowed. I don’t see UCF being able to stop the Mustangs in this one, and 8.5 points leave the back door wide open in a game SMU should probably win outright.

SMU/UCF Over 56

I mentioned above how I don’t see UCF being able to stop the balanced SMU offense. But I also see SMU struggling with a UCF offense well-suited to attack their biggest weakness. That’s also in the run game, where SMU finds themselves 121st in yards per rush allowed. The big difference is that UCF’s offense is based almost entirely on the run game, ranking third in the country for rushing yards per game and 12th in yards per rush. They should dominate up front against an undersized SMU line, allowing the Knights to set up plenty of scoring chances.

We should also see an up-tempo game from both offenses, as SMU takes the second-lowest amount of time between plays, while UCF is 24th in that metric. These are also two defenses that are below average in tackling, so that should equal plenty of big plays. The weather is now perfect in Orlando, so with this total teased right to the critical number of 56, these teams should have no trouble getting to the over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 879-734 ATS (+79.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Image credit: USA Today Sports

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